\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 908 Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) )
Outdoor camping is the full embodiment of the change of leisure life concept and the trend of consumption upgrading. China's camping market has great penetration space and equipment upgrading potential. On the one hand, camping is close to nature, leisure healing and full of a sense of life ceremony, which is a powerful carrier of diversified and personalized leisure ways for young groups; On the other hand, with the improvement of outdoor supporting facilities and the unlocking of scenes such as waters, airspace, forests and grasslands, there is no need to travel long distances and the cost is controllable. Outdoor is also a rich choice for parent-child social education.
We believe that, on the one hand, the industry's attention and penetration rate are still in the early stage. China's camping market has considerable room for improvement, equipment upgrading potential and sales related capacity, and the policy may continue to guide camping outdoor activities in the future and drive rural consumption of emerging services; On the other hand, from the financial performance of the world-famous equipment snowpeak, the global multi field camping equipment market showed a good boom, and increased month on month in April. The scale growth of local Japan reached about 26% in April, and the consumption trend is expected to resonate globally.
By comparison, the penetration rate of camping population in the United States in 2020 was 15.8%, and that in Japan exceeded 10% by April 2022. China is still in the early stage. If the penetration rate is calculated at 10%, the number of camping users in China is expected to reach hundreds of millions in the future, and the blue ocean market has great prospects.
At present, camping in China is in the stage of savage growth. In the future, it may be deduced from the trend to a way of life.
From the perspective of user portraits, the post-90s tourists who love nature and catch up with the trend and the post-80s who pay attention to children's experiential education have become the main force, taking into account the two needs of healthy baby walking and physical and mental relaxation, improving parent-child relations and becoming a new way for young people to socialize.
With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, being close to nature, embracing mountains and rivers, campfires, picnics, aerial music and other camping and leisure methods, compared with traditional tourism and shopping, the attraction will gradually increase. In the future, it may not only be a short-term trend, but a more popular lifestyle.
In 2021, the attention of camping on various travel platforms has increased significantly, and outdoor leisure activities with short-distance safety, privacy and social interaction have been sought after.
Domestic head brands gradually narrow the gap with foreign brands with the advantages of localized operation and supply chain
Domestic head brands include Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) , Nuoke, Heilu, etc., which fully meet the public's demand for cost-effective camping equipment by relying on the advantages of localized design, operation and supply chain; At the same time, domestic brand construction and online sales channels are more mature. At present, traffic entrances such as variety shows and new energy vehicles are actively connected with camping, which continues to drive attention and exposure of relevant brands.
Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) multi-channel layout, aggregate traffic and improve brand awareness
Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) brand is rich in cross-border cooperation, layout multiple channels, cooperate with pizza hut to provide limited PICNIC CAMPING surroundings, cross-border Meizu to launch new camping products, IP authorized cooperation with iqiyi camping theme variety, launch the special plan of "home camping", gather traffic and cultivate camping cognition and consumption habits; Enter Sam's club store, broaden offline Ka channels and improve brand experience.
Raise the profit forecast and maintain the buy rating. With the continuous popularity of the camping industry since January to may, the performance of Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) brand far exceeds that of the same period in history. We expect the company's revenue to be 1.6 billion yuan, 2.4 billion yuan and 3.4 billion yuan respectively (previously 1.3 billion yuan, 1.7 billion yuan and 2.3 billion yuan respectively), the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 150 million yuan, 230 million yuan and 340 million yuan respectively (previously 120 million yuan, 180 million yuan and 250 million yuan respectively), and the corresponding EPS to be 2.3, 3.5 and 5.1 yuan / share respectively (previously 1.8, 2.7 and 3.8 yuan / share respectively), PE is 43x, 28x and 19x respectively.
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly affects terminal demand and logistics, the growth rate of outdoor industry slows down, the risk of intensified industry competition, the risk of price fluctuation of raw materials, etc.
