Key recommendations focus on the following: ‘ Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) for the , Grandblue Environment Co.Ltd(600323) , China water, Jiangxi Hongcheng Environment Co.Ltd(600461) , Yutong Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(600817) , Henan Bccy Environmental Energy Co.Ltd(300614) , fulongma, China Resourcesand Environment Co.Ltd(600217) . Suggestions for attention: Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co.Ltd(605090) , Suzhou Jinhong Gas Co.Ltd(688106) , Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) , Chongqing Sanfeng Environment Group Corp.Ltd(601827) , conch entrepreneurship, Beijing Capital Eco-Environment Protection Group Co.Ltd(600008)
Infrastructure steady growth policy + REITs financing tool support, focusing on the development of environmental protection sector and the revaluation of high-quality operating assets. 1) The 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission in April 2022 emphasized carbon reduction and infrastructure construction. M1-2 ecological and environmental protection expenditure ahead of 2022 special bond issuance accounted for 4.16%, an increase of 0.22pct compared with 3.94% in 2021, and the strategic position of ecological and environmental protection was improved. 2) The raising rules of REITs for infrastructure are released, which is conducive to the formation of a virtuous circle of investment and financing and steady economic growth at the macro level; At the micro level, water and solid waste assets in the field of environmental protection are given priority, and the value of high-quality operating assets is subject to revaluation. With the support of infrastructure steady growth + REITs tools, traditional infrastructure pays attention to water & solid waste steady growth: 1) water: recommend [ Jiangxi Hongcheng Environment Co.Ltd(600461) ] comprehensive public utility platform, promise that the cash dividend ratio in 20222023 will be ≥ 50%, the dividend rate will be 6.4% (2022 / 4 / 30), and there is a margin of safety [China water], and it is recommended to pay attention to [first; create environmental protection]. 2) Waste incineration: it is recommended that [Everbright environment] stock subsidies be cashed and superimposed on its own development cycle, cash flow is improved to welcome the return of value, and the dividend rate is 7.5% (2022 / 4 / 30); Dynagreen Environmental Protection Group Co.Ltd(601330) 。 3) The value of gas pipeline is prominent, so it is recommended to pay attention to [ Top Resource Conservation & Environment Corp(300332) ]. New infrastructure construction focuses on renewable resources & Hydrogen Energy & New Energy: 1) renewable resources: recommend hazardous waste recycling [ Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) ]; Power battery recovery [ Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) ]; Recycled plastics [ Beijing Sanlian Hope Shin-Gosentechnical Service Co.Ltd(300384) ]; Recycling of distiller’s grains [ Road Environment Technology Co.Ltd(688156) ]. 2) Hydrogen energy: it is suggested to pay attention to upstream hydrogen production [ Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co.Ltd(605090) ]; 3) New energy: recommend solid waste + new lithium battery materials [ Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603568) ]; It is suggested to pay attention to atmospheric governance + green power [ Fujian Longking Co.Ltd(600388) ].
Carbon neutral builds the investment framework of environmental protection industry from the front end, middle end and back end, and is bullish on the long-term rise of EU carbon price and CCER in the short term. 1) Front end energy substitution: adjust the energy structure, pay attention to sanitation new energy equipment and renewable energy substitution. 2) Middle end energy conservation and emission reduction: promote industrial transformation and pay attention to energy conservation management & Application of emission reduction equipment. 3) Back end recycling: promote waste classification, hazardous waste and other renewable resources reuse. 4) Carbon trading: encourage the development of CCER projects such as renewable energy, methane utilization and forestry carbon sequestration. The development of China’s carbon market is similar to that of the European Union. It already has the prototype of total amount control & market regulation mechanism. At present, there is much room to improve the transaction scale and covering industries, and the carbon price is far lower than overseas. The tightening of total amount drives the carbon price to rise for a long time. The approval of CCER demand release is expected to restart. We expect the scarcity price of CCER to rise in the near future.
Steady growth + new tools + new fields. Comprehensively recommend low-carbon environmental protection assets: 1) environmental asset value + Growth Logic 2.0: a) steady growth + new tools + new fields. Policy +: double carbon, strengthening infrastructure investment; Mode +: REITs returns increase; Space +: the second growth curve. B) The value of cash flow driven by marketization is further highlighted: CCER green power, waste incineration bidding and marketization of water price enhance the certainty of return and improve cash flow. 2) Under the new logic, the valuation anchor has been significantly improved: undervalued + low position + growth, improved model and cash flow, and improved valuation. 3) Suggestions: a) steady growth / high dividend / REITs: waste incineration [ Dynagreen Environmental Protection Group Co.Ltd(601330) ], water + pipe network [ Beijing Capital Eco-Environment Protection Group Co.Ltd(600008) ] [ Jiangxi Hongcheng Environment Co.Ltd(600461) ], water supply price increase + direct drinking water [China water]. B) New track: renewable resources: the most economical carbon premium + price rise of resource products: hazardous waste recycling [ Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) ], wine tank recycling [ Road Environment Technology Co.Ltd(688156) ], battery reuse [ Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) ], recycled plastics [ Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) ] [ Beijing Sanlian Hope Shin-Gosentechnical Service Co.Ltd(300384) ]; Hydrogen energy: [ Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co.Ltd(605090) ]; High matte: [ Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603568) ].
Latest research: Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) resource oriented, high growth rate unchanged, front-end capacity expansion & layout deep resource oriented Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) lithium battery cycle high growth trend remains unchanged, capacity Landing & channel expansion Beijing Sanlian Hope Shin-Gosentechnical Service Co.Ltd(300384) boom is high, 22q1 orders increase rapidly, and reserves are sufficient Jiangxi Hongcheng Environment Co.Ltd(600461) outstanding performance, rising sewage volume and price, improved structure, increased profit & cash flow Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603568) the consolidated performance of Guoyuan Shengyun increased steadily, and the expansion momentum of solid waste + new materials was strong; Infrastructure steady growth policy + REITs financing tool support, pay attention to the development of environmental protection sector and the revaluation of high-quality operating assets Grandblue Environment Co.Ltd(600323) 22q1 solid waste net profit increased by 69%, and shareholders increased their confidence Shenzhen Gas Corporation Ltd(601139) actively improve the pressure of urban combustion, and the comprehensive energy layout has achieved remarkable results Suzhou Shijing Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(301030) photovoltaic & cement expanded rapidly, and the cost rose to suppress the gross profit margin Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) performance increased steadily, closed production and controllable epidemic situation China Resourcesand Environment Co.Ltd(600217) subsidy adjustment, short-term disturbance, consolidation of leading advantages of shareholders From solid waste materials to solid waste materials.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the interest rate rises more than expected, and the fiscal expenditure is lower than expected
