Last week’s market:
The social services (Shenwan) sector index rose or fell by – 2.37% in the week, ranking 18 / 31 in the rise and fall of Shenwan industry. Shanghai Stock Index (- 1.29%), Shenzhen Component Index (- 0.27%), Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (+ 0.07%) and gem index (+ 0.98%).
Ranking of sub industries: SW professional services (- 6.08%), SW hotel catering (- 6.81%), SW tourism and scenic spots (- 7.78%), SW Education (- 8.40%), SW sports II (- 9.78%).
Top five gainers in social service industry: Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) (+ 12.84%), Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) (+ 6.40%), Kerui International (+ 6.25%), Fengshang culture (+ 4.98%), Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) (+ 3.85%);
Top five declines in social service industry: ST Donghai a (- 22.55%), ST Donghai B (- 22.13%), Kaiyuan Education Technology Group Co.Ltd(300338) (- 21.10%), Sansheng Intellectual Education Technology Co.Ltd(300282) (- 19.95%), ST tengbang (- 18.37%).
Core view:
According to China Central Television, as of May 3, the epidemic situation in Shanghai was generally stable and good, and the social clearance work has entered a critical period. Shanghai will accelerate the final disinfection of the families of positive infected persons and the full coverage of the disinfection and sterilization of positive buildings, and continue to carry out targeted environmental cleaning and preventive disinfection and sterilization. At present, the national epidemic prevention and control is still facing a severe and complex situation and is in the most difficult and critical stage. With the accelerated research and development of specific drugs and the steady progress of covid-19 vaccine vaccination, the epidemic situation is expected to be further controlled under the guidance of the general strategy of “external prevention input and internal prevention rebound” and the general policy of “dynamic clearing”.
For the key livelihood industries greatly affected by the epidemic, relevant support policies have been issued one after another. All localities have vigorously stimulated cultural tourism consumption by means of consumption vouchers and promotion. After the growth trend of the epidemic is alleviated, it is expected to quickly activate the market vitality of the offline travel industry.
On the supply side, small and medium-sized enterprises have accelerated clearing, on the demand side, the digestion of household inventory under epidemic prevention and control has accelerated, and the supply demand is strong. With the stability of epidemic prevention and control, the long suppressed offline consumption and travel demand is expected to be triggered. We are optimistic about the rebound opportunity of the social service industry in the second quarter, and the performance of leading companies in subdivided industries is expected to be boosted.
Risk warning: global epidemic control; Regulation of national policies; Industry regulatory risks; The downward pressure on the economy has increased.
