Weekly resumption: the rise and fall of this week ranked 14th, and the PE of SW passenger car was in the historical quantile of 86%; SW car fell 1.7%, underperforming the market by 0.2pct. Except for SW passenger cars, SW commercial trucks, SW commercial buses, SW auto parts and SW auto services showed a decline. Among the 28 industries in Shenwan level, the automobile sector ranked 14th this week, ranking in the middle. In terms of valuation, since 2011, the PE / Pb of SW passenger cars have been in the historical quantile of 86% / 77% respectively, with the quantile of – 1PCT / – 1PCT compared with last week; PE / Pb of SW parts are at the historical 54% / 20% quantile respectively, and the quantile is 0pct / – 4pct month on week. In horizontal comparison, the valuation of passenger cars is higher than that of white appliances and lower than that of Baijiu in PE and lower than that of white appliances and Baijiu in Pb; The valuation of auto parts sector is lower than that of computer and higher than that of media in terms of PE and Pb. (this week specifically refers to 202204.23 ~ 202204.30, the same below. If the year is not indicated before the month / quarter in the text, it is the current year of 2022 by default)
Boom tracking: the cumulative daily average wholesale / retail chain ratio in the first three weeks of April was – 50% / – 33% respectively. From April 18 to 23, the average daily retail sales volume of passenger cars was 29553, with a year-on-year increase of – 46% and a month on month increase of – 20%; In the first three weeks of April, the cumulative average daily retail sales volume of passenger cars was 26556, with a year-on-year increase of – 39% and a month on month increase of – 33%; From April 18 to 23, the average daily wholesale sales volume was 21715, with a year-on-year increase of – 61% and a month on month increase of – 56%; In the first three weeks of April, the cumulative average daily wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 23068, with a year-on-year increase of – 50% and a month on month increase of – 50%. The output of narrow passenger cars in March was 1.823 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.3% and a month on month increase of + 22.0%; The wholesale sales volume was 1.814 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.6% and a month on month increase of + 23.6%. In March, there were 1410700 strong traffic insurance vehicles in the industry, with a month on month ratio of – 15.6% / + 26.46% respectively. Inventory: in March, the overall enterprise inventory of the passenger car industry was + 9000 units, and the channel inventory was + 296000 units.
Key focus: the price of raw materials decreased slightly. According to our self built passenger car raw material price index model, weighted by the five raw material price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel, the overall raw material price index of passenger cars this week (04.25-04.29) was – 3.99% month on month (04.18-04.22), and the price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel were – 9.41% / – 4.81% / – 3.18% / – 4.70% / – 3.85% month on month (MOM) respectively.
Investment suggestion: resume work and production in an orderly manner. Q2 is an important time window for configuring the automobile sector. Eight major gold stocks in 2022: complete vehicle [ Byd Company Limited(002594) + ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ], parts [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) + Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) + Foryou Corporation(002906) ]. The second is the whole vehicle [ China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) followingthe 238 + China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) + Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], follow [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) ].
Risk tip: the impact of chip shortage exceeded expectations, and the price war of passenger cars exceeded expectations.
