Customized furniture: the revenue increased sharply in the whole year of 21, and the provision of bulk business led to the decline of performance: in terms of revenue, the customized furniture industry achieved an operating revenue of 54.977 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 30.2%, the average annual compound growth rate from 2019 to 2021 was 17.9%, and the growth rate of 22q1 revenue slowed down to 10.1%. However, the head enterprises showed stronger resilience in the face of risks, Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) 22q1 revenue achieved a year-on-year increase of 25.6%. In terms of performance, affected by the rise in the price of raw materials and the increase in the proportion of new categories, the gross profit margin of the industry is under pressure, the provision for bad debts is superimposed on bulk businesses, and the credit / asset impairment loss has increased significantly year-on-year, resulting in a decline in performance. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company of the customized furniture industry was 2.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.9%, the net profit margin of sales was 5.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2pct, including Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) due to the strict risk control of bulk business and the adoption of agent model, the performance achieved steady growth in 2021.
Software Home: driven by domestic and foreign trade, the effect of price increase is expected to appear this year: in terms of revenue, the software home industry achieved an operating revenue of 34.253 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 38.0%, and the average annual compound growth rate from 2019 to 2021 was 31.5%. The growth rate increased for two consecutive years, and 21q4 increased by 19.0% year-on-year under the high base of the previous year. 22q1, the software home industry achieved an operating revenue of 8.088 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%. From the perspective of growth driving force, the domestic and export revenue of the software home furnishing industry in 2021 increased by 38.9% and 34.7% respectively year-on-year, with strong domestic and foreign sales. In terms of performance, excluding the impact of changes in accounting standards, Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) gross profit margin decreased to 1.1pct year-on-year, and Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) gross profit margin increased by 1.5pct year-on-year. Both of them carried out two rounds of price increases for domestic retail business in 2021. It is expected that with the marginal improvement of raw material prices, the positive impact of price increases on gross profit margin is expected to be fully apparent in 2022. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company of the software home furnishing industry was 1.95 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, of which, Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (excluding the impact of 20-year goodwill impairment) and Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) (excluding the impact of film and television business statement) net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 25% and 71% respectively, and Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) due to the high proportion of overseas business, the net loss was 280 million yuan. The net profit attributable to the parent company of 22q1 software home furnishing industry was 530 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, deducting 460 million yuan of non net profit, a year-on-year increase of 21%.
The big home strategy leads the industry forward, and category integration opens up growth space: in 2021, the growth rate of new categories of household enterprises is generally higher than that of starting categories. According to our calculation, the growth contribution of new categories of household enterprises is generally about 50%, of which the 21-year revenue growth contribution of businesses other than Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) kitchen cabinet products is 74.3%. The development of various categories has led to the continuous improvement of customer unit value of household enterprises. According to the Guangzhou Holike Creative Home Co.Ltd(603898) 2021 annual report, thanks to the supplement of product categories, the company’s retail customer unit price has maintained a growth rate of more than 10%. According to the Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) 2021 annual report, the customer unit price of Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) factory increased by 9.6% year-on-year to 14491 yuan / unit in 2021. After Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) released the 29800 yuan customized package focusing on “the whole family, Gaoyan family” in September of 21, many enterprises followed up and the industry entered the competition of the whole space from the layout of multiple categories. We believe that entering the whole era puts forward higher requirements for the R & D and design ability, category integration ability, production and manufacturing ability and service delivery ability of household enterprises, and the industry competition is upgraded, Concentrate the accelerated share to the leader.
In terms of retail business, in 2021, the revenue growth of europay and Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) distribution channels mainly contributed to the increase of single store delivery, while Zhibang and gold medal mainly contributed to the expansion of stores. In 2021, the net increase of Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) kitchen cabinets was 52 and 14 respectively, the net increase of wardrobe was 77 and 11 respectively, and the net increase of Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) kitchen cabinets was 166175, with a net increase of 197 and 253 wardrobes respectively. According to our calculation, Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) the single store delivery volume of kitchen cabinets, wardrobes and supporting furniture products exceeded 2 million and 3.8 million yuan respectively in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 18% and 43%. Affected by the epidemic, all household enterprises in 22q1 slowed down the pace of offline stores. In terms of bulk business, affected by the slowdown in the opening number of real estate industry and hardbound houses, the revenue growth of bulk business slowed down from 21h2 and generally turned negative in 22q1. In terms of package business, europay and Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) package channels are leading in development Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) in 2021, the revenue of packaged channels was 529 million yuan, and that of 22q1 was 127 million yuan, an increase of 218% year-on-year. In 2021, europay’s packaged home business achieved a revenue of 1.871 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.79%. In April this year, europay launched a new model of “integration of customized decoration”. Compared with the whole customized product strategy, it further covers the link of hard decoration. Consumers’ one-stop home consumption demand can be better solved. Compared with the whole decoration channel strategy, the large home display center is closer to consumers and has direct contact with end consumers.
Investment suggestion: since 2008, the valuation trend of SW furniture sector and SW real estate sector has converged, and basically synchronized with the year-on-year data of residential sales area in the current month. During the year-on-year rise of residential sales area, the valuation of the sector began to rise, and during the year-on-year decline of residential sales area, the valuation of the sector is under pressure. Since 21h2, the growth rate of residential sales area in the current month has continued to be negative. The valuation of SW furniture sector has decreased from 32 times in March 21 to 23 times in April 22. At present, it is at a historical low. According to the preliminary statistics of the shell Research Institute, since this year, more than 70 cities have relaxed their property market regulation policies, and the relaxed cities have been transmitted from the third tier cities to the second tier provincial capitals. Under the background of steady growth, the policy environment is expected to continue to improve. At present, the valuation of home furnishing enterprises is generally at the bottom of history. After the real estate sales data pick up, there is sufficient room for upward valuation.
At the end of March this year, the number of furniture manufacturing enterprises rose to 7170, and the proportion of losses expanded to 28.7%, close to the level after the epidemic in April 2020. With the leading enterprises represented by European School leading the industry into the era of large home furnishing, the home furnishing industry has entered the competition of comprehensive capabilities such as design, production, supply chain and delivery service, the industry competition has upgraded, and the market share is expected to accelerate the concentration to the leading enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading household industry leaders Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , as well as Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) .
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic exceeds expectations; Real estate sales data is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies; Under the promotion of the whole company, the sales cost is higher than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply.
