The development of new energy vehicles is in full swing, and the cathode material is the key to the price rise of the industrial chain. Since 2019, carbon neutralization has become a global consensus and entered a period of accelerated development. The carbon emission reduction of the transportation industry is of great significance to China’s 3060 double carbon policy, and the market space of new energy vehicles is broad. Since the second half of 2020, the mismatch between supply and demand has led to an obvious rise in the price of the industrial chain, in which the cathode material has the greatest impact on the battery cost.
The ternary cathode industry has a long slope and thick snow, and the technology is constantly upgraded. We predict that the global installed capacity of ternary batteries will reach 1079gwh in 2026, and the demand for ternary cathode materials will reach 1.73 million tons, with an annual compound growth rate of 31% from 2021 to 2026. The upgrading of ternary cathode technology is generally in two directions: 1) improvement of energy density: increase energy density through high nickel and high voltage. At present, China’s ternary high nickel penetration rate is close to 40%. Driven by thermal diffusion technology, large cylindrical battery technology and the outbreak of European and American markets, it is expected to boost the continuous improvement of high nickel penetration rate. 2) Improvement of stability, cycling and safety: mainly through doping, coating, single crystal and other technologies.
Ternary cathode material industry has entered the era of integration. 1) Vertically, improve the depth of enterprise profitability through the integration of precursor cathode materials. At the same time, the extension of nickel resources to the upstream has also become a trend. 2) Horizontally, ternary cathode enterprises have the advantages of customer channels and technology R & D, and gradually expand to the field of lithium iron phosphate materials to build a platform enterprise of lithium battery cathode materials. As of March 2022, Sanyuan cathode enterprises have announced plans to expand the production of at least 1.06 million tons of lithium iron phosphate.
The market pattern of ternary cathode materials continued to be optimized. 1) Under the background of rising raw material prices, the cost transmission of ternary materials is relatively smooth, the benefits of low-cost inventory of some enterprises have been brought into play, and the profit level per ton has been improved. 2) With the gradual rise of overseas markets, Chinese enterprises have gradually entered the overseas supply chain and opened the road of global competition. 3) In the past, the concentration of ternary cathode in China was not high, and the top 3 city accounted for 37% in 2021. In the future, under the trend of high nickel and industrial integration, the industry concentration is expected to increase.
Investment suggestion: carbon neutralization has become a global consensus. The medium and long-term growth of the new energy vehicle industry chain is clear. Ternary cathode materials have a great impact on the choice of battery technology route and cost. Under the trends of high nickel and integration, the industry pattern continues to be optimized. It is recommended that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , and Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) .
Risk tip: the risk that the company’s capacity expansion is less than expected; Increased competition in the industry leads to the risk of declining profits and the risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices.
