Key investment points
The world has reached a consensus on emission reduction, and there is huge space in the four sectors: in 2020, the president of Xi Jinping proposed the “double carbon” goal, and in 2021, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued relevant policy objectives, guidance and action plans to comprehensively deploy the “double carbon” action from the aspects of industrial structure, urban and rural construction, transportation, laws and regulations, finance, taxation and organization and implementation. Globally, according to eciu data, more than 140 countries or regions have implemented carbon neutralization targets to varying degrees. Energy conservation, emission reduction and the use of clean energy are the global consensus in the next 30 years. In the context of energy transformation, we believe that in the next decade, new energy sub industries such as photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles, energy storage and hydrogen energy will have several times or even dozens of times of growth space, and the development of new energy industry has ushered in a historic opportunity period.
Photovoltaic power generation: the upstream price center went down, and the profitability of the middle and lower reaches rebounded: in 2021, the photovoltaic industry was hampered by high silicon prices, soaring shipping prices, industrial power and production restrictions and other obstacles. The new PV installed capacity in China was basically the same year-on-year, and the new PV installed capacity in the world increased slightly. At present, many unfavorable factors in the industry are gradually disappearing, and the new installed capacity of global PV is expected to increase by more than 40% in 2022. We judge that the price center of upstream products in the industry will decline in 2022. With the recovery of downstream demand and the optimization of supply and demand structure, the unit profitability of downstream products will rise. In 2022, the whole photovoltaic industry chain will grow in large quantities, and the middle and lower reaches and auxiliary material links with good marginal profit are preferred. The key recommendations are: Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) . It is recommended to pay active attention to: Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) , Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300019) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) .
New energy vehicles: the penetration rate has accelerated upward, focusing on new technological changes: in 2021, the global new energy vehicles have increased more than expected, and the penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles has continued to climb from 7.2% in January to 19.1% in December. The industry is in an explosive period, and the upstream products of the industrial chain are in short supply. The prices of upstream products represented by lithium ore, lithium salt, lithium hexafluorophosphate and PVDF have exceeded the high prices in 2017, A record high. In 2022, the high growth of new energy vehicles will continue, and the price of raw materials will continue to rise. It is expected to accelerate the transformation of new technologies in the industry, and pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by new technologies such as sodium ion batteries, new electrolytes and 4680 batteries. Key recommendations: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) . It is recommended to pay active attention to: Shandong Kaisheng New Materials Co.Ltd(301069) , Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) , Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) .
Wind power generation: wind power starts to be parity, and the valuation center goes up: in 2021, the price of wind turbine continues to go down, and the EPC cost of wind power plant continues to decrease. At the same time, due to the upward EPC price of photovoltaic power plant, the IRR of wind power project investment is better than that of photovoltaic power project. After the rush installation of offshore wind power in 2021, both offshore and onshore wind power will enter the parity stage in 2022. Wind power is also one of the important clean energy in the future. The growth of the industry has been ignored periodically, and the valuation level of the industry is expected to be in line with that of the photovoltaic industry. It is suggested to pay active attention to: Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) .
Energy storage hydrogen energy: during the cultivation period of the industry, the development space is broad: with the promotion and popularization of new energy such as photovoltaic and wind power, the demand for energy storage will continue to grow. Among them, electrochemical energy storage technology will become the mainstream energy storage mode in the future with its advantages of fast response, no geographical restrictions and continuous cost reduction. Hydrogen energy can be combined with photovoltaic wind power and has energy storage characteristics. In 2021, large projects related to hydrogen energy in China will continue to land, and industrial clusters will gradually form. Driven by continuous policy incentives and subsidies, it is expected to replicate the development process of new energy vehicles, with broad industry space. It is suggested to pay active attention to: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Meijing energy, Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) , Zhejiang Narada Power Source Co.Ltd(300068) .
Risk tip: the new installed capacity of photovoltaic wind power is less than expected, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the sharp fluctuation of raw material prices affects the industry demand, and other unexpected explosions.
