Data this week: new energy vehicle enterprises have raised prices one after another, and the marginal price of bulk vehicles has decreased
New energy vehicle enterprises have raised prices one after another, and the cost pressure is gradually transmitted to the terminal. A new round of price increase schemes such as krypton, lantu, Chang'an, SAIC passenger cars and Lingke came into effect on May 1, and the cost pressure was gradually transmitted to the terminal.
The price of main raw materials fell marginally this week. The average prices of cold-rolled sheet, hot-rolled coil, aluminum, copper, natural rubber and polypropylene, the main raw materials of automobile and supply chain, were + 0.6%, - 2.5%, - 4.7%, - 1.2%, - 4.2%, - 1.9% month on month, respectively; The average price in the past month was + 1.7%, + 1.0%, - 5.0%, + 1.8%, - 2.7%, - 1.7% month on month, respectively.
This week's view: continue to be optimistic about independent rise + electric intelligence + motorcycle
Great changes have taken place in automotive intelligent and electric vehicles, reshaping the industrial order and looking forward to the golden decade of the automotive industry. Core portfolio of this month [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) ].
Passenger cars: new forces announced the delivery volume in April, most of which fell month on month. In April, Weilai / Xiaopeng / ideal delivery month on month ratio was - 49.2% / - 41.6% / - 62.2% respectively. We judge that it is mainly due to the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain, resulting in the loss of output. Since March, the price rise has led to an increase in short-term wait-and-see demand, and the medium-term expected product power is still strongly driven. The supply chain has been repaired steadily. So far, the resumption rate of the first batch of white list enterprises has exceeded 80%. On April 28, Shanghai Municipal Commission of economy and information technology officially issued the second batch of white list of enterprises that have resumed work and production, with a total of 1188 enterprises. The penetration rate of new energy increased rapidly. In March, the wholesale sales volume of narrow passenger vehicles was 1.82 million, and the monthly penetration rate of new energy exceeded 25%. Firmly optimistic about the independent rise, realize the brand improvement and increase the market share through reform, recommend [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely Automobile h, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ], and benefit the target [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H].
Parts: Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order, rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis, and firmly look at many parts. Intellectualization will be the core theme of this year. Intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit will accelerate together, and we are optimistic about the accelerated penetration of acoustics + chassis by wire + domain controller; Electrification accelerates the development of lightweight, Tesla leads the integrated die casting, and improves the industry concentration while increasing the industry expansion. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened, driving the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper. Recommend Tesla + new forces industrial chain: [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
2. Product dimension:
The transformation of smart electric will reshape the brand power and product power. All vehicle enterprises continue to increase the configuration of smart electric, so as to improve the market share and improve the brand:
1) intelligent increment: intelligent driving - [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Jingwei hengrun-w], the beneficiary object [Nextel]; Smart cockpit: Acoustics - [shangsheng electronics], smart seat - [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], ceiling glass - [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], lights - [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively);
2) electrification increment: three power [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ]; New energy heat management [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], beneficiary [ Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]; Lightweight [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Motorcycles: according to the data of China Automobile Association, China's medium and large displacement motorcycles sold 33000 in March, with a year-on-year increase of + 31.1% and a month on month increase of + 41.9%. In 2022q1, 82000 vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of + 49.7%. Medium and large displacement motorcycles represent the direction of consumption upgrading, with huge market potential. The share will be concentrated in independent and joint venture brands with outstanding brand strength, leading powertrain technology and perfect channel layout. Recommend [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) ], and benefit from [ Loncin Motor Co.Ltd(603766) ].
This week's market: overall weaker than the market, led by the passenger car sector
This week, the A-share auto sector fell by 1.0% (weighted average of current market value, the same below), ranking 11th in shenwanzi industry, weaker than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (up 0.3%). The auto parts, truck equipment and other service segments rose by 1.4% and 6.4% respectively, while the auto parts, truck equipment and other service segments rose by 1.4% and 6.4% respectively.
Risk tips
Shortage of chip supply in automobile industry; Fluctuations in raw material costs exceed expectations; The terminal demand of the automobile industry is lower than expected; Automobile export sales were lower than expected.
