Event overview:
In April, the delivery volume of key new energy vehicle enterprises was released. According to the data disclosed by each company:
5074 Weilai vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of - 28.6% and a month on month increase of - 49.2%;
9002 Xiaopeng, 74.9% year-on-year and - 41.6% month on month;
Ideal 4167 vehicles, year-on-year - 24.8%, month on month - 62.2%;
2174 polar krypton vehicles, a month on month increase of + 21.1%;
GAC ea'an 10212 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 22.9% and a month on month increase of - 49.2%;
8813 Nezha vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 119.5% and a month on month increase of - 26.7%;
There were 9087 zero runs, with a year-on-year increase of + 228.1% and a month on month increase of - 9.7%.
Analysis and judgment:
The epidemic has led to short-term pressure on the industry, and emerging car companies have caught up from behind
The epidemic prevention policy has been strengthened, and the sales volume of new energy vehicle enterprises has declined. Affected by the epidemic, the China Automobile Association expects the sales volume of full caliber narrow passenger vehicles to decline by about 15% month on month in April. The general decline in sales of new forces is more obvious. We judge that the main reasons are:
\u3000\u30001. The lack of supply chain capacity caused by the phased shutdown caused by the epidemic has affected the production capacity of new power auto enterprises;
\u3000\u30002. Jilin, Shanghai and surrounding areas have successively entered silent management from late March to early April, which has brought obstacles to logistics transportation;
\u3000\u30003. Due to the rise in raw material prices, major car companies announced price increases in March, leading to some orders being advanced before the price increases, which had an impact on the delivery volume in April;
On April 18, Shanghai issued the guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation of industrial enterprises returning to work and production in Shanghai (the first edition), requiring enterprises to return to work and production step by step on the premise of controlling risks. In the first batch of lists released, there are more than 200 enterprises related to the automobile industry, accounting for about one third. According to the announcement of Shanghai Municipal Commission of economy and information technology, as of April 30, 80% of the white list of the first batch of key enterprises in Shanghai have gradually returned to work and production, and Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) all vehicle factories and Tesla have achieved vehicle mass production. At the same time, the Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission launched the second batch of 1188 enterprises on the white list of resumption of work. With the improvement of the epidemic situation, the supply chain, logistics and production of the whole industry will gradually recover. We expect that the production capacity of automobile enterprises will usher in restorative growth in May. Superimposed on the backlog of orders in hand of major automobile enterprises, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the medium term is still good.
Xinxing car factory is fast and large-scale, and Weilai ideal meets the challenge. According to the delivery volume data released by various automobile enterprises, the sales volume of Weilai and ideal decreased significantly, with 5074 and 4167 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 28.6% and - 24.8% respectively. Weilai and ideal products have high prices, and the production, sales and supply chain focus on Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai. Therefore, they are relatively most affected by the epidemic. The key production and sales areas of Xiaopeng, gac-e'an, Zero run and Nezha are far away from the epidemic center and are relatively less affected. The year-on-year growth rates of Zero run, Nezha and Xiaopeng reached 228.1%, 119.5% and 74.9% respectively, ranking among the top three in the growth rate list.
Diversified supply guarantee will become a trend, and small and medium-sized suppliers will usher in opportunities. The diversification of suppliers may become a guarantee element under the normalization of the epidemic. After the epidemic situation is alleviated, all auto enterprises should consider establishing their own alternative supplier system, including more small and medium-sized suppliers, and providing multiple insurance for their own supply guarantee. Powerful enterprises may reduce their dependence on a single supplier and reduce the concentration of parts supply, so as to reduce the impact of external uncontrollable factors on enterprise production and improve their anti risk ability.
Electrification enters from 1 to N, and intelligence starts the competition in the second half
The three new forces took the lead in the first half competition dominated by electrification. Many new cars will be delivered this year and enter the development stage from 1 to N:
1) Weilai will launch three new products this year, including et7 and et5 cars and ES7 (medium and large SUV). Et7 was delivered on March 28, with a starting price of 448000 yuan. It is oriented to the high-end pure electric car market. A total of 693 sets were delivered in April. Et5 is expected to be delivered in September. The starting price under the battery rental scheme is 258000 yuan before the subsidy. While bearing the brand power of Weilai, it will accelerate the sinking and bring new volume products. ES7 is positioned in the medium and large-scale high-end 5-seat SUV market and is planned to be delivered in Q3. The intelligent configuration of the three vehicles is at the leading level of the same level. In addition, the existing "866" is expected to be listed in May.
2) Xiaopeng flagship SUV Xiaopeng G9 was unveiled in Guangzhou at the end of 2021, with a positioning higher than P7, which will fill the vacancy of medium and large SUV products of the brand. G9 intelligent configuration is upgraded again. It is the first mass production vehicle equipped with xpilot 4.0 function, and Q3 is expected to be delivered this year.
3) ideal L9 was originally scheduled to be released on April 16. We judged that it was delayed due to the epidemic, and the price range was 45 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 0000 yuan. L9 has been improved in intelligence, power and size. The product is positioned as an ideal high-end product and will be benchmarked with Mercedes Benz GLS and BMW X7. It will bring the ideal space for product positioning and gross profit.
Electric acceleration + Intelligent start reshaping the Centennial industrial pattern
The global new energy vehicle industry as a whole presents the dual characteristics of "electric acceleration + Intelligent opening". The trillion market has been opened, the traditional car enterprises have actively transformed, and the new forces of car manufacturing and technology Internet enterprises (Huawei, Baidu, Xiaomi, Dajiang, etc.) have accelerated their entry to promote the prosperity and development of the industry.
(1) vehicle level: in the process of rapid capacity expansion of the industry, the new power brands represented by Weilai make full use of Internet thinking and select tracks to break through. Although Baidu, Xiaomi and other new entrants launch their models late, the complete industrial chain is expected to build a late development advantage at that time, and their own brands will usher in historic opportunities;
(2) parts level: with the development of electric intelligence and the reshaping of the whole zero relationship, there is a wide space for domestic substitution of independent parts suppliers. Some parts enterprises with strong technology R & D capability are expected to rise to the leading of global subdivided industries through globalization based on the Chinese market. At the same time, the entry of Huawei, Dajiang and other technology enterprises will also accelerate the reconstruction of the industry pattern, and the serious imbalance between the status of China's vehicle industry and the status of parts industry is expected to be alleviated.
Investment suggestions:
This year, the launch of new powerful new products was accelerated, and the product power continued to drive the growth of demand. Since Q2 this year, Weilai / Xiaopeng / ideal will successively usher in a new product cycle, and the intelligent configuration will be further upgraded. From the perspective of channel construction and capacity launch of new forces this year, we believe that the new product cycle is expected to drive the rapid increase of sales of new forces this year. The transformation of electric intelligence will promote the great transformation of vehicle business model, and the scientific and technological attributes and consumption attributes will become more prominent, driving the reconstruction of valuation. Benefit target [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H]. Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order and firmly looks at multiple parts. The qualitative change at the supply side of new forces and traditional car enterprises continued to advance. In the first half, the trend of electrification has been determined. In the second half, intelligent competition has opened, intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit have accelerated together, and electric intelligence has reshaped the industrial order. Rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened, driving the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper. Recommend Tesla + new forces industrial chain: [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
2. Product dimension:
Smart electric change will bring brand power and product power Resha. Car companies are constantly adding smart motorizconfigurations, and hoping to achieve brand upward: the best acoustics - [[ 6885 Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], interior - [ Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) ] Platform type - [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ]. The dual carbon pressure superimposed electric vehicle weight reduction drives the improvement of endurance. The vehicle has a wide space for lightweight. It is recommended to [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], and the beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk tips
The sales volume of new models is lower than expected; The failure to strictly implement laws and regulations such as points and carbon emissions has led to the launch progress of new energy and new models of automobile enterprises not reaching the expectation; The impact of chip shortage.
