Core view of this week: the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee released a positive signal for real estate. The financial management department held a meeting to guide the rescue of 12 problematic real estate enterprises. The State Council and the national development and Reform Commission also put forward policies to ensure the steady growth of real estate, and the relaxation policies are more frequent in various regions. This week, the transaction area of new houses maintained a month on month growth, and the decline in year-on-year growth narrowed. The year-on-year decline in the second-hand housing market narrowed, led by second tier cities, which have changed from negative to positive year-on-year. In terms of land, there was little change in supply and transaction area this week compared with last week, and the supply-demand ratio increased slightly. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of transaction construction surface in first tier cities was 68.8%, growing rapidly, and the second and third tier cities still did not improve. There was also a certain recovery in financing this week, the issuance of bonds and debt repayment increased, the net financing amount changed from negative to positive, and the number and amount of trust issuance increased month on month. On the whole, due to the impact of the epidemic and the overall environment, the transaction area of new houses and second-hand houses increased month on month this week, the year-on-year decline expanded, the month on month rise and year-on-year decline narrowed in the land market, and the inventory of commercial houses continued to rise.
Key policy analysis: the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on April 29. For the real estate industry, the meeting stressed the need to effectively control key risks and hold the bottom line of no systemic risks. We should adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, support all localities to improve real estate policies from local realities, support rigid and improved housing demand, optimize the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. This meeting mentioned holding the bottom line of no systemic risk. It can be seen that the recent real estate risk is the content that the state pays more attention to and needs to be actively controlled. It is necessary to prevent the real estate risk from spreading to other fields. Affected by the external environment and the epidemic, the growth rate of GPD in the first and second quarters was under pressure. The meeting made it clear that the target of GDP growth of 5.5% this year remains unchanged, which shows the determination of the state to effectively control the real estate industry and the expectation of subsequent real estate development. The central government’s attitude towards loose policies has changed to a certain extent compared with the relaxation of several real estate cycles in the past 15 years. Under the general tone of adhering to the principle of “housing without speculation”, this time proposed to improve the real estate policy and improve the housing demand according to the local actual situation, which is also a more clear reference to support the local government to change the real estate policy due to the implementation of urban policies after the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in December 2021 and the government report in March 2022, It has opened up space for further comprehensive relaxation of local policies.
One week market review: this week (2022 / 4 / 252022 / 5 / 1), Shenwan real estate index fell by 0.96%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.33pct, ranking 8th / 32 among various sectors, and the Hang Seng real estate construction industry index rose by 0.24%, underperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index by 2.06pct. The real estate companies with the top three increases this week are: Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) (45.95%), Langold Real Estate Co.Ltd(002305) (33.91%), Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) (22.62%). The top three real estate companies that fell this week were: Shenzhen Wongtee International Enterprise Co.Ltd(000056) (- 39.75%), Tahoe Group Co.Ltd(000732) (- 24.5%), Lvjing Holding Co.Ltd(000502) (- 22.45%). This week (April 25, 2022-may 1, 2022), the Hang Seng property service and management sector rose 3.5%, outperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index by 1.19pct and underperforming the Hang Seng China enterprise index by 1.18pct, ranking 9th / 28th among various sectors. The top three companies that rose this week were Baolong Commerce (12.6%), Shidai neighborhood (12.26%) and Binjiang service (9.09%). The top three companies that fell this week were jiazhaoye Meihao (- 9.01%), first service holding (- 4.65%) and Jianfa property (- 1.8%).
Real estate market monitoring: new house transaction data from last Saturday to this Friday (2022 / 4 / 232022 / 4 / 29): the transaction area of new houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 2170200 square meters, with a month on month increase of 1.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 48.4%, and the decline narrowed The transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities was 1.985 million square meters, with a month on month increase of 29.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%. Last week (April 18, 2022-april 24, 2022), the land supply and construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities was 294282 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 34%, a month on month increase of 4.2%, the land transaction and construction area was 180113 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 45.9%, a month on month decrease of 1.81%, and the supply-demand ratio rose to 1.63.
Financing of real estate enterprises: this week (2022 / 4 / 252022 / 5 / 1), the total amount of domestic new bonds issued by real estate enterprises was 21.643 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1% and a month on month increase of 23.89%. In terms of trust issuance, nine real estate trusts were issued this week, with an issuance scale of 782 million yuan, down 79.74% month on month. The average annual yield is 7.57% and the average term is 1.81 years.
Risk factors: policy risk: the progress of policy relaxation is less than expected. Market risk: the market recovery of the real estate industry is less than expected, and the epidemic control is less than expected.
