Key investment points
Heavy policies continue to be launched at home and abroad, and the demand for wind power is expected to resonate. On October 8, the State Council held a meeting and proposed to accelerate the construction of large-scale scenic bases; On October 12, the president proposed to speed up the planning and construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects in deserts, adjacent areas and desert areas. The first phase of the project with an installed capacity of 100 million KW has been started in an orderly manner in the near future. For the distributed wind power policy, in September, the national energy administration proposed to focus on promoting the nearby development of wind power in the central and southeast coastal areas and implement the “wind control plan for thousands of townships and thousands of villages” in the vast rural areas; On October 17, the specific action plan for wind power partnership was released at the launching ceremony of “Fumei village”, striving to launch the first batch of demonstration projects with a total scale and capacity of 5GW in 10 counties and cities by the end of 2021. The U.S. government has announced plans to support offshore wind power, plans to expand wind power plants in the coastal areas of the United States, and aims to complete the plan of 30GW offshore installation in 2030.
China accounts for more than half of the newly installed wind power in the world and is the most important wind power market in the world. By 2020, the global cumulative wind power installed capacity is 751gw, of which China’s cumulative wind power installed capacity is 281gw, accounting for 37% of the global cumulative installed capacity. From 2014 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate of the global wind power industry was 11%, while the compound growth rate of China’s wind power industry reached 24%, much higher than the average growth rate of the global wind power industry. In 2020, the new installed capacity of global wind power was 98.3gw, a year-on-year increase of + 62.7%, of which the new installed capacity in China reached 69.9gw, mainly due to the rush to install onshore wind turbines in China in 2020. The new installed capacity in China accounted for 71% of the new installed capacity of global wind power, and the Chinese market occupied an important position in the global wind power market. In 2020, the new installed capacity of global onshore and offshore wind power is 90.2gw and 6.1gw respectively. China accounts for more than half of the new installed capacity of global onshore and offshore wind power.
China’s wind power bidding volume is abundant, and the bidding price trend is downward. Affected by the decline of subsidies, the bidding scale increased sharply in 2019, reaching an all-time high of 65gw, resulting in the rush installation of onshore wind power in 2020. In 2020, the bidding for wind power projects was less, reaching 31gw, and the price of wind turbines decreased. The price of 3MW wind turbines fell from 4040 yuan / kW in early 2020 to 2410 yuan / kW in September 2021. CGN Yunnan Qujing wind farm was invited for bidding, It has also hit a historical low price of 1880 yuan / kW. The reasons for the decline include the decline of wind power demand overdraft after rush installation, the price war in the wind turbine industry, etc. However, as the price of wind turbines has halved, the installed cost of wind power plants has decreased significantly, and the considerable yield of wind power projects has stimulated China’s potential demand. The scale of wind power public bidding from January to October 2021 has reached 52gw, approaching the highest level in history. At present, China’s wind power bidding is abundant, and the prosperity of the wind power industry in 2022 is expected to exceed expectations.
Investment suggestions: it is suggested to grasp the main line of investment from three aspects: 1) pay attention to the leading manufacturers of fans: the trend of large-scale fans and speed up the clearing of fan supply side, which is beneficial to the leading enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to complete machine manufacturers such as Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) . 2) Focus on parts manufacturers: considering the sea breeze, large scenery base and the opening of parity cycle, at present, the scale of public bidding in 2021 has reached 58gw, and the performance certainty of parts and components is high. Coupled with the market’s transformation of wind power cycle to growth logic, the valuation center is expected to rise and the configuration price ratio is high. It is recommended to focus on parts manufacturers such as Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) . 3) Focus on wind power operators: green power trading volume is expected to continue to grow, superimposed with the rise of electricity price and the catalysis of green power policy, and the valuation is expected to improve rapidly. Focus on China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) and other operators.
Risk factors: the installed capacity of wind power does not meet expectations; Industry competition intensifies; The price of raw materials continues to rise; The wind power policy did not meet expectations.
