Performance summary of Volkswagen products from 2021 to 22q1: overall recovery and internal differentiation. In 2021, the revenue / net profit of the food and beverage sector was 8973 / 157.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.9% / 13.7%. 22q1 realized a revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company of 267 / 60.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.9% / 20.3%. 22q1 net interest rate 22.64%, mom + 8.0pct, Profitability recovered month on month. In terms of sectors, the demand for condiments has warmed up after de stocking and weakening the impact of community group purchase, and the profit is still under pressure due to the rising cost; The C-end demand of quick-frozen food is promoted by the epidemic, the b-end is damaged, the overall revenue is growing steadily, and the profit is still under pressure in the short term; The demand for dairy products is stable, the revenue growth is considerable, the price of raw milk has gradually stabilized, and the profit margin has increased; The offline stores of halogen products have been greatly affected by the epidemic. The company has increased its support to franchisees, and the increase of expense rate has put pressure on profits; Affected by the low pig price, the revenue and net profit of meat products continue to be under pressure.
Condiment: the upward cost puts pressure on the profit side, and the improvement can be expected under the price increase + fee reduction + base effect. In 2021, the revenue of condiment sector increased steadily, the profit margin decreased slightly, the revenue growth of soy sauce and vinegar industry was relatively stable, and the growth of compound condiment slowed down, mainly due to high base + weak demand + intensified competition. On the cost side, the cost of raw materials continued to rise in 2021, and the profitability of enterprises was generally under pressure. At present, the costs of soy sauce and vinegar and compound adjustment are high, and the cost of pickled mustard is uncertain downward. 22q1 all enterprises reduced their sales expenses to cope with it, and the gross sales difference was flat year-on-year. Under the background of industrial pressure, the concentration has increased slightly. The head enterprises have achieved stable operation with excellent cost smoothing and cost control ability, and the barriers to competition have been further consolidated. Looking forward to 2022, the elasticity can be expected under the effect of price increase + fee reduction + base.
Quick frozen food: the epidemic situation promotes C-end demand and waits for profit improvement. In 2021, the weak recovery of catering and the continuation of residents’ consumption habits cultivated by the epidemic promoted the high growth of the quick-frozen food industry. Looking forward to 2022, the epidemic situation will promote the demand of C-end, and the catering end is expected to usher in a high growth after the epidemic situation is effectively controlled. On the profit side, the cost of raw materials rose to the pressure of gross profit margin. Price increase + structural upgrading + fee reduction are expected to continue to alleviate the cost pressure, and the performance elasticity is large under the low base in the second half of the year.
Dairy products: the price of raw milk stabilized and the profit margin of the sector increased steadily. The gross sales difference of 2021 / 22q1 sector was 11.83% / 13.95%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.58 / + 0.36pct. 2021 / 22q1 net interest rate is 6.17% / 8.5%, year-on-year + 0.68 / + 0.85pct. Under the background of upgrading the product structure, gradually stabilizing the milk price, slowing the competition pattern and shrinking the expenses of listed companies, the profitability of the sector continued to improve. Looking forward to the whole year, the price of raw milk is expected to remain stable or fall slightly, the terminal demand is stable, and the performance of the sector is expected to be stable and good.
Brine products: counter the trend and increase subsidies to franchisees. The epidemic has been repeated, and offline stores have been greatly hit. The company chose to advance and retreat with franchise stores and gave franchisees subsidies and discounts, resulting in a sharp increase in the cost rate. Under adverse circumstances, the main halogen products brands, as chain stores, have stronger anti risk ability. The opening goals of Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) and Zhou Heiya in 2021 have been completed. If the epidemic situation improves and the store revenue recovers, it is expected that the company will have better performance flexibility.
The price of slaughtered pigs is depressed, and the revenue of slaughtered pigs is under pressure. In 2021, the revenue of meat products sector was 115.6/4.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 10% / – 46%. 22q1’s revenue / net profit was 24.8 billion / 16 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 24% / – 17%. The downturn in pig prices led to a decline in the industry’s gross profit margin in 2021, Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) slaughtering business revenue was under pressure, 22q1’s ton profit of meat products reached a record high, the meat products business is expected to achieve rapid growth under the promotion of low base, low cost and new products, and the profit of slaughtering business is expected to improve quarter by quarter.
Investment strategy: the overall investment strategy follows two main lines: (1) scenario recovery logic. In the early stage after the epidemic is lifted, the release of constraints is an important driving force for the improvement of consumption margin. Mass products benefit from the recovery of deterministic income growth in catering and other scenarios. At the same time, in 22q2, the general base of mass products decreases to release profit elasticity; (2) Based on the medium and long-term search for leaders with strengthened barriers, the popular products have been significantly differentiated after two years of epidemic. Among them, the leading companies strengthen the company’s moat by virtue of brand and operation management. It is suggested to focus on the layout of leaders from a long-term perspective. The specific targets are mainly recommended Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , and pay attention to Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) , Qingdao Richen Food Co.Ltd(603755) , etc.
Risk warning: the recovery of the epidemic situation is not as expected; Raw material costs fluctuate more than expected; Food Safety.
