Summary of this issue:
As the global energy crisis escalated, rubber prices fell steadily. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has pushed up the prices of global energy, grain, chemical fertilizer and other commodities, bringing many changes to the world. We made an in-depth analysis of the trend of tire raw materials under the global energy crisis. Natural rubber and synthetic rubber account for nearly 50% of tire raw materials. Natural rubber is a long-term Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , which is not highly related to international energy prices. Recently, with the pressure on the tire industry and the clearing of the production capacity of small enterprises, the price of natural rubber has entered the downward channel with the decline of the operating rate of all steel tires and semi steel tires, which runs counter to the oil and gas market. On April 20, the standard rubber scrwf reported 12832 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 1.78% and a month on month decrease of 0.5%. Although synthetic rubber is a petrochemical product, it is less affected by the price of oil and gas, and the price is also falling recently. From December to April 26, 2021, under the background of a new wave of rise in oil and gas prices, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber closed at 13975 yuan / ton, down 12.66% from December and 14.31% year-on-year; The price of styrene butadiene rubber closed at 12013 yuan / ton, down 8.21% from December. A year-on-year decrease of 12.83%.
The Russian Ukrainian crisis caused a shortage of carbon black and hit the European tire industry. Europe is heavily dependent on the production of carbon black by Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Among the carbon black imported by the EU in 2020, 447700 tons came from Russia, 52300 tons from Ukraine and 3900 tons from Belarus. 84.63% of Europe’s carbon black imports depend on Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. Under the double blow of sanctions and war, the carbon black supply of the three countries has been almost cut off, and the European carbon black market is facing serious supply problems. The European tire industry was affected by the war and even offered production reduction plans. At a press conference in early March, Michelin said that due to the rise of carbon black and crude oil prices, it would begin to implement the production reduction plan in Europe within two weeks, and Michelin had announced the abolition of the heavy vehicle tire department with more than 700 people due to the overcapacity of heavy vehicle tires. In addition, with the development and production of green tires, white carbon black is accelerating to replace carbon black. Under the background of the rising price of traditional carbon black and the increasing demand for green tires, the substitution effect of white carbon black on traditional carbon black will be more obvious.
Relevant subject matter:
Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) : European peers are in trouble, and freight rates in Southeast Asia have decreased significantly. The European tire industry has been adversely affected by the difficulty in importing carbon black and the high price of raw materials. The cost pressure has increased, and the production has been reduced or even stopped. The actual production capacity of the company’s factories in Vietnam and Cambodia is 4.25 million all steel tires and 12.5 million semi steel tires. According to the company’s capacity planning, overseas Vietnam phase III (1 million all steel tires, 4 million half steel tires and 50000 tons of off-road tires) and Cambodia project (1.65 million all steel tires and 9 million half steel tires) are expected to be completed in 23 years. The recent decline in sea freight has eased the cost pressure. At the same time, the company’s new liquid gold tire is opening up the market and is expected to become a new highlight of the company’s performance.
Quechen Silicon Chemical Co.Ltd(605183) : white carbon black has become the first choice for green tires, and the expansion of production capacity has brought Changhong performance. The company’s main precipitated silica (i.e. white carbon black) has two advantages of more environmental protection and lower rolling resistance compared with traditional carbon black. By the end of 2021, the company has a precipitation silica production capacity of 330000 tons / year, ranking first in China. In the context of the continuous expansion of the market share of green tires, the company has started the construction of high dispersed silica projects with an annual output of 70000 tons of sodium silicate and 75000 tons of green tires. The company’s performance is expected to achieve performance growth by taking advantage of the trend of capacity expansion.
Risk factors: the expansion of production capacity is less than expected, and the price of shipping is rising. The price of upstream raw materials is rising
