Industry view of this week (this week refers to April 25 to April 29, 2022, the same below)
Event: on April 29, 2022, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. What consumption related signals did this important meeting release and what impact did it have on investment? In this paper, we interpret it one by one according to the original text of the Politburo meeting.
Adhere to dynamic clearing, but emphasize “efficient overall planning” and wait for the gradual recovery of catering and tourism industries. Original text of the meeting: the meeting stressed… The need to effectively coordinate epidemic prevention and control and socio-economic development according to the new characteristics of virus variation and transmission… Adhere to dynamic zeroing, maximize the protection of people’s life safety and health, and minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development. Interpretation: the meeting made clear the adherence to dynamic zeroing. At the same time, it also mentioned the need to minimize the impact of the epidemic on the economy, and stressed the need to “effectively coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development”. The epidemic in Shanghai has not completely ended this week, and there has been a rebound in the epidemic in Beijing and other places. Under the requirements of the clearing policy, the recovery of catering, tourism and other related industries affected by the epidemic still needs to wait. Of course, under the requirements of “efficient overall planning”, the future recovery of these industries is deterministic.
Pay attention to the follow-up policies in the consumption field and the boost of residents’ consumption confidence. Original text of the meeting: the meeting requires… To give play to the leading role of consumption in the economic cycle… To effectively ensure and improve people’s livelihood, stabilize and expand employment, organize the supply of important people’s livelihood commodities, ensure the operation of urban core functions, stably control the situation of safe production, and maintain the stability of the overall social situation… To adhere to the national game of chess, ensure smooth transportation and logistics, ensure the supply chain of key industrial chains, anti epidemic and supply enterprises Critical infrastructure is functioning properly. Interpretation: consumption plays an important role in driving the economic cycle. The quality of consumption depends, to some extent, on the confidence of residents in the future economic environment. When people think that their income will be better in the future, they will be free to spend. I believe we can see more economic landing to stimulate consumption in the future, and constantly boost residents’ consumption confidence. Under the current epidemic situation, the protection of people’s livelihood commodities is the focus. After the recovery of residents’ consumption confidence in the future, the optional consumption that has been silent for a period of time is expected to show good elasticity.
Promoting the healthy development of platform economy + implementing normalized supervision is conducive to maintaining a good business environment. The meeting stressed… The need to promote the healthy development of the platform economy, complete special rectification of the platform economy, implement normalized supervision, and introduce specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy. Interpretation: the platform economy has indeed improved the quality of daily life of residents, but its disorderly development, malicious subsidies, low-cost dumping and other behaviors have also had a certain impact on the business environment. The meeting proposed to implement normalized supervision on the platform economy, on the one hand, continue to give full play to its benefits to society, on the other hand, continue to prevent the occurrence of bad behaviors such as malicious subsidies. The supermarket industry previously affected by the expansion of community group purchase and fresh e-commerce platform is expected to recover continuously in the future.
Recommended target: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) etc. benefiting from travel recovery; Medical beauty and cosmetics in optional consumer goods Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , etc; Chemical logistics supply chain + e-commerce core enterprise Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) etc.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The prosperity of terminal consumption decreased; Intensified market competition, etc.
