After the Politburo meeting set the tone, it is expected that the real estate supporting policy will continue to be introduced.
High energy cities are also expected to increase policy relaxation in combination with their own market recovery. Combined with the adjustment of monetary policy, the market is expected to continue to improve, the recovery of industry sales is expected, and gradually transmitted to the overall recovery of investment. We believe that the real estate sector still has good investment opportunities and maintains the optimistic rating of the industry. We are optimistic about the real estate enterprises with excellent operation and management ability, stable financial style and stronger table expansion ability under the restriction of leverage management. Beneficiary objects: (1) Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China overseas development, China Resources Land, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Xuhui holding group and other steady leaders occupying a high market share of the core urban agglomeration; (2) Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Yuexiu real estate, Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) and other regional high-quality real estate enterprises deeply cultivating the core urban agglomeration.
The Politburo meeting set the tone to strive to achieve the expected objectives of economic and social development throughout the year.
The meeting clearly pointed out that although the covid-19 pneumonia epidemic and the crisis in Ukraine have led to increased risks and challenges, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of China’s economic development environment have increased, it is a clear requirement of the Party Central Committee to prevent the epidemic, stabilize the economy and ensure safe development. The meeting called for strengthening macro policy adjustment, stabilizing the economy, striving to achieve the expected objectives of economic and social development throughout the year, maintaining the economic operation within a reasonable range, setting the policy and maintaining the economic development objectives throughout the year. From the data, the data of the Bureau of statistics from January to March showed that the sales amount and area of commercial housing in China decreased by 13.8% and 22.7% year-on-year respectively; The new construction area decreased by 17.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate of investment completion decreased to 0.7%. The output of real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chains accounts for more than 20% of China’s GDP. The significant downturn of the real estate industry will drag down the macro-economy. Secondly, land related fiscal revenue is an important source of funds for local governments at all levels. In 2021, the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 8705.1 billion yuan, accounting for 42.4% of the local broad fiscal revenue (the sum of local general public budget revenue and local government fund budget revenue), while the land transfer fee in the first quarter of 2022 was only 11958 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.4%, which may inhibit the ability of local fiscal expenditure.
Adhere to the principle of “no speculation in housing and housing”, and both supply and demand sides express their support for reasonable demand.
For the real estate industry, the meeting stressed the need to adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions, support rigid and improved housing demand, optimize the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. From the perspective of both supply and demand, the demand side continues to express its position, and encourages all localities to support the reasonable housing needs of house buyers in combination with their own market conditions and urban policies, so as to drive the overall recovery of the market; The supply side clearly pointed out that it is necessary to optimize the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds, which aims to ensure the smooth delivery of industrial auction sales and prevent the unfinished project. However, at the same time, a more reasonable pre-sale fund supervision policy is also expected to alleviate the capital pressure of real estate enterprises to a certain extent, improve the supply efficiency of the industry and reduce the business risk of enterprises.
Risk tip: sales in the real estate industry fell sharply; Monetary policy tightened more than expected.
