In 2022, the banking sector can tell “five stories”. Each story is like a puzzle, corresponding to a puzzle answer: Valuation – space, economy – buying point, capital – easy to rise, performance – sustained prosperity, transformation – differentiation.
Valuation: from the end of 2019 to the end of 2021, the banking sector did not rise for two years. Coupled with the increase of net assets per share in the annual report of 2021, the accumulated valuation switching space reached about 30%, while roe has stabilized, and the asset quality has been significantly improved compared with 2019. There are not many downward reasons for valuation. At present, Pb is only 0.63 times, which provides a good starting point for the launch of the market.
Economics: the better buying point for bank stocks is the eve of credit relief and economic recovery. The second best is the brewing period at present. The marginal easing of real estate financing and the issuance of 1.46 trillion special bonds in advance are conducive to supporting the recovery of the growth rate of 22q1 fixed asset investment, resulting in a credit relief effect similar to that in the first quarter of 2019 and supporting the economy.
Capital: banks account for 7.2% of the A-share free circulation market, ranking sixth only, and the transaction is relatively inactive. They can start the market without a large amount of capital; In the past month, funds from going north have largely flowed into the banking sector, ranking first among 31 Shenwan industries, and the prosperity of the sector has improved significantly.
Performance: expansion supports net interest income, other non interest income 21q4-22q1 will still increase, supporting revenue can still continue to improve, asset quality continues to be optimized, provision provision can be maintained at a low level, profit growth can also operate at a high level, which does not constitute a drag on the market.
Transformation: the cyclical fluctuation of medium income is relatively insignificant, which can be used as a stabilizer for performance, while “big wealth management” can open up the capital end and asset end, absorb residents\’ financial funds with high-quality products, expand off balance sheet, maintain a high growth rate of AUM, and further differentiate the valuation of the sector.
To sum up, there is room for valuation, which is easy to go up and difficult to go down; The better buying point is the night before the reversal of economic expectations, and the second best is now; The free circulation of banks is not large, the transaction is not active, and there is no need for a large amount of funds. It has flowed in on a large scale in the past month; Business is still booming and performance is not a drag on the market; Different developments on the big wealth management track may lead to alpha differentiation.
Investment suggestion: select the concept of big wealth track and convertible bond. It is recommended to pay attention to Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) in joint-stock banks, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) in urban commercial banks, and Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) in large banks.
Risk tip: deterioration of asset quality, real estate risk exposure, insufficient credit extension, and poor bottom support effect of steady growth.
