Summary of the first quarter of 2021 and 2022: the total revenue in 2021 has recovered before the epidemic, but the revenue in 2022q1 has not increased year-on-year
In 2021, the total revenue of A-share media sector was 582.1 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 12.3%), an increase of 8.8% compared with that in 2019, and the total revenue has returned to the pre epidemic level; In the first quarter of 2022, the total revenue of A-share media sector was 120.7 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 0.02%). In the middle and March of the first quarter of 2022, it has been affected by the fluctuation of epidemic situation in some regions, and the revenue has not increased significantly year-on-year; In 2021, the return to parent profit returned to before the epidemic in 2020, but the profit in 2022q1 was under pressure. In April 2022, due to the multi-point spread of the epidemic in East China, the revenue in the second quarter was expected to be affected. At present, this part of the impact has been gradually released in the emotional side. With the progress of epidemic control and the superposition of policy end support, we can see the progress of enterprise end resumption of work and production, and it is expected to pick up in the third quarter.
New demand increment in 2022
In terms of users' new needs, the number of generation Y and generation Z reached 315 million and 233 million respectively. In terms of consumption scale, the annual consumption scale of generation Y and generation Z reached 6.68 trillion yuan and 4.94 trillion yuan respectively. At present, generation Y is still the main force in the consumer market, but generation Z has begun to lead the change of consumption trend in some fields. As generation Z enters the workplace, its income gradually increases, They are expected to become a strong growth point of the consumer market in the future. 400 million women drive an economy of 10 trillion yuan. New supply brings new increment. 2022 can focus on the new increment of the Asian Games (e-sports, star cards) and metauniverse (VR consumer level progress, digital collections, digital people).
Industry rating and investment strategy
Give the media and Internet new consumer industry an overweight rating. In 2021, the overall revenue and profit have gradually recovered to the epidemic situation. However, in the first quarter of 2022, the epidemic situation spread in many places in March, which affected the economic activities of enterprises. In April, East China was still disturbed by the epidemic situation. It is expected that the economic activities of enterprises will still be affected in the second quarter of 2022. However, at present, the impact of this part has been gradually released on the emotional side. In May, the epidemic situation has returned to overall control from the relatively high incidence stage. With the resumption of work and production, The policy is expected to help the economic recovery in May. The Shanghai and Beijing yuancosmos summit is expected to be held at the end of May and July. It will welcome the 618 e-commerce festival in June, the Asian Games in September, the National Day in October and the double 11 in November. The pressure on economic profits in the second quarter has been highlighted ahead of schedule, and the performance is expected to improve month on month in the third quarter ( Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) , Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) , Hengdian Entertainment Co.Ltd(603103) ); In the second and third quarters of 2022, we can see the new demand and the new increment brought by the new demand. To be able to focus on the Asian Games to be able to focus on the Asian Games' race for the Asian Games to be able to focus attention on the Asian Games' race for the Asian Games (with the 60325258 (, Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd(603096) , Zhewen Interactive Group Co.Ltd(600986) , Zhejiang Huace Film And Tv Co.Ltd(300133) , etc.), and then give the overweight rating to the new consumer industry of media and Internet.
Risk tips
The risk of industrial policy change, the risk that the performance of the recommended company is less than expected, the risk of industry competition, the risk that the development of new technology is less than expected, the risk that the protection of privacy data is less than expected, the risk that the supply of high-quality content is less than expected, and the risk that the operation does not meet the expectation; Epidemic fluctuation risk and macroeconomic fluctuation risk.
