Basic conclusion
Overall: the momentum of performance growth is weakened, and the overall profitability is under pressure. (1) According to the sample data of 499 machinery companies, the annual revenue of the machinery industry in 2021 was 1953.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 129.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.85%; The increase in performance was mainly due to the gradual transfer of global manufacturing capacity to China due to the outbreak of the global epidemic, the steady state of capital expenditure of Chinese enterprises and the deepening of domestic substitution. (2) In the first quarter of 2022, the overall revenue of the machinery industry increased by 1.2% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 16.3% year-on-year. Quarter by quarter, the revenue growth rate in the past five quarters has gradually decreased, but still maintained a positive year-on-year growth trend. The main reason is that the macro-economy has gradually weakened since the second quarter of 2021, weakening the margin of downstream demand kinetic energy of the machinery industry, but it still achieved growth in the high base in the same period last year, showing strong demand toughness. (3) From the perspective of profitability, due to the rising cost of raw materials and the overall pressure on the profitability of the machinery industry. In 2021, the industry’s annual gross profit margin was 22.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.28pct, and the net profit margin was 6.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.42pct; In the first quarter of 2021, the gross profit margin of the industry was 22%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.66pct, and the net profit margin was 7.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.41pct. (4) Cash flow: the cash flow of the machinery industry was good in 2021, with a net operating cash flow of 150.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.46%.
The growth rate of “net profit” is significantly lower than that of “net profit”. According to the statistical sample of 499 companies, (1) in 2021, 436 companies achieved revenue growth, accounting for 87%; There are 252 companies with revenue growth in the range of 0% – 30%, accounting for about 57.8% of revenue growth; 438 companies made profits, accounting for 88%; Among the 438 profitable companies, 317 companies achieved net profit growth, accounting for 72% and 63% of the total industry. (2) 2022q1: 347 companies achieved revenue growth, accounting for 69.54%; There are 212 companies with revenue growth in the range of 0% – 30%, accounting for about 61% of the company’s revenue growth; 259 companies achieved net profit growth, accounting for 51.9% of the total industry. (3) Overall, the growth rate of net profit in the machinery industry is lower than that of income, which is mainly due to the decline of profitability caused by the rise of raw material costs.
In terms of sectors, the emerging special equipment sectors such as lithium battery, photovoltaic and semiconductor equipment have an eye-catching performance. In terms of sectors: (1) in 2021, the top five sectors of revenue growth in the machinery industry are lithium battery equipment (year-on-year + 76.35%), semiconductor equipment (year-on-year + 57.77%), photovoltaic equipment (year-on-year + 50.06%), laser equipment (year-on-year + 45%) and cutting tools (year-on-year + 43%); Excluding the influence of low base, the top five sectors of net profit growth attributable to the parent company are logistics automation (year-on-year + 106%), semiconductor equipment (year-on-year + 85%), cutting tools (year-on-year + 79%), industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) (year-on-year + 78%) and laser equipment (year-on-year + 68%). (2) The top five sectors in 2022 Q1 machinery industry in terms of revenue growth are lithium battery equipment / semiconductor equipment / cold chain equipment / photovoltaic equipment / laser equipment, with a revenue growth rate of + 134% / + 62% / + 54% / + 35% / + 25%; Excluding the influence of low base, the top five sectors of net profit growth attributable to the parent company are lithium battery equipment / machine tool equipment / cold chain equipment / semiconductor equipment / photovoltaic equipment, with a year-on-year growth rate of + 156% / + 130% / + 96% / + 57% / + 40%. (3) In terms of revenue growth in 21q4 and 22q1, photovoltaic equipment, lithium battery equipment, semiconductor equipment, laser equipment, cutting tools, cold chain equipment and industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) sector all showed high growth.
Investment suggestion: with the gradual implementation of the policy of steady growth and the inflection point of epidemic interference, we judge that the prosperity of the machinery industry is expected to improve month on month from May. It is suggested to focus on CNC cutting tools, nuclear power equipment, lithium battery equipment and construction machinery. Recommend Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co.Ltd(603308) , Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) , Jee Technology Co.Ltd(688162) , Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) , Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) , etc.
Risk warning: macroeconomic change risk; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Policy and production expansion are less than expected risks.
