Zhou Du’s core view:
E-commerce:
The epidemic situation in many places in China has rebounded, and the online consumption demand of residents may continue to increase; With the concerted efforts of major e-commerce platforms to fight the epidemic, materials and transportation capacity have been marginally improved. Jingdong retail announced 12 business support measures. Jingdong Logistics opened a “Guangzhou Shanghai” special line for shipping materials to Shanghai. Jingxi added a “Shanghai exclusive” guaranteed supply venue, more than 3 million goods were delivered to Shanghai, and the stock of key materials in Jingdong seven fresh Beijing market reached 10 times of the daily; Beijing requires fresh e-commerce platforms to stock more than three times their daily consumption; Dingdong shopping online adds commodity function, and orders that have not been sorted can continue to be “replenished”. Under the trend of stricter epidemic prevention and control, real-time retail and community group purchase may benefit: self operated modes of real-time retail e-commerce, such as daily excellent fresh food, Ding Dong shopping, box horse, meituan shopping, etc; O2o platform modes, such as Jingdong home, taoxianda, hungry, meituan flash purchase, etc; Community group purchase, such as meituan optimization, buying more vegetables, panning vegetables, etc. Suggestion: JD group.
Traditional retail:
The Ministry of human resources and social security said it would increase efforts to delay the payment of social security fees to enterprises in catering, retail and other industries; More than 700 convenience stores in Shanghai have resumed business, and orders are mainly online and centralized procurement; Wal Mart, Carrefour, RT mart and other hypermarkets are accelerating their business recovery. With the recent rebound of the epidemic in China and increasingly strict control in various regions, the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control may be at an inflection point. Shanghai has steadily promoted the resumption of work and production, and paid attention to the post epidemic recovery opportunities of local commercial stocks in Shanghai. It is suggested to pay attention to: Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) Shanghai Xujiahui Commercial Co.Ltd(002561) Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) Shanghai Join Buy Co.Ltd(600838) 。
Gold jewelry:
Gold and jewelry maintained a high outlook. In 2022q1, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry commodities increased by 7.6% year-on-year, and the overall social zero growth rate in the same period was 3.3%; 2022q1 China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) output was 83.401 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 12.04%, and gold consumption was 260.26 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.69%. In the short term, the demand depends on the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control and the recovery of offline passenger flow; In the long run, the upgrading of the ancient process on the product side will stimulate terminal consumption, and the reform of changing the one-time price of gold to the weight of gold on the price side will promote the transparency of the pricing mechanism. With the head brand actively expanding the sinking market, the market concentration is expected to continue to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
Market review last week:
Last week (202204.25202204.29), the retail trade (CITIC) index fell 4.39%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.46pct. The commerce and retail sector ranks 24th among 30 CITIC first-class industries. The sub sectors of the retail sector fell across the board. The quantile of PE in commercial retail industry is greater than that in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. At present, the PE (TTM) of commercial retail industry is 67.99, which is in the quantile from small to large since 2012, which is 90.31%; Shanghai and Shenzhen 300pe (TTM) is 11.85, and the quantile is 39.65%.
Industry dynamic tracking:
E-commerce: JD retail announced 12 business support measures. JD logistics opened a “Guangzhou Shanghai” material shipping line to aid Shanghai. JD hi added a “Shanghai exclusive” guarantee venue, and more than 3 million goods were delivered to Shanghai. The stock of key materials in JD seven fresh Beijing market reached 10 times of the daily, and JD app and JD home app increased group purchase services; Beijing requires fresh e-commerce platforms to stock more than three times their daily consumption; Dingdong shopping online adds commodity function, and orders that have not been sorted can continue to be “replenished”; The coverage area of Shanghai hungry Yao drugstore has exceeded 93%, and the cumulative distribution has exceeded 2.2 million orders. Traditional retail: Wal Mart has established a national regular donation network of surplus food; HEMA transferred more than 200 tons of materials to ensure the stable supply of living materials for Beijing citizens; Yonghui has established supply guarantee lines with more than 120 construction sites in Shanghai, and Yonghui logistics coordinates 31 logistics centers to support supply guarantee work; The Ministry of human resources and social security said it would increase efforts to delay the payment of social security fees to enterprises in catering, retail and other industries; More than 700 convenience stores in Shanghai have resumed business, and orders are mainly online and centralized procurement; Wal Mart, Carrefour, RT mart and other hypermarkets are accelerating their business recovery; Shenzhen will issue 500 million yuan of consumption vouchers to consumers through meituan and jd.com platforms. Gold jewelry: in the first quarter of 2022, China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) output was 83.401 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.04%, and gold consumption was 260.26 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.69%.
Investment suggestions:
Maintain the “overweight” rating of the commercial retail industry. Investment main line 1: gold jewelry continues its recovery trend and high outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) . Investment mainline 2: common prosperity background, superimposed traffic peaking status quo, Internet enterprises are facing fierce competition, it is suggested to pay attention to Jingdong group, which has low regulatory risk, focuses on performance efficiency with retail as the king, and builds a moat with supply chain advantages. Investment main line 3: the recent rebound of China’s epidemic situation, increasingly strict local control, and the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control may be at an inflection point. Shanghai has steadily promoted the resumption of work and production, and paid attention to the post epidemic recovery opportunities of local commercial stocks in Shanghai. It is suggested to pay attention to: Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) Shanghai Xujiahui Commercial Co.Ltd(002561) Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) Shanghai Join Buy Co.Ltd(600838) 。
Risk tips:
Repeated outbreaks; Macroeconomic depression; Industry competition intensifies.
