Overall overview: under the background of market downturn, the scale of Q1 fell and the concentration increased significantly.
From the perspective of scale: the total sales holdings of stocks + mixed public funds and non commodity basic holdings of the top 100 were 5.9 trillion and 7.9 trillion respectively, which were - 8.5% and - 5.3% month on month and + 8.8% and + 21.0% year-on-year respectively compared with 2021q4. The proportion of CR100 consignment market was 80.2% and 52.6% respectively, and + 4.6pct and + 0.6pct respectively, and + 5.7pct and + 1.1pct respectively. We believe that the reason for the increase in concentration is that under the background of market downturn, long tail institutions may face the dual pressure of falling net worth and large-scale redemption due to insufficient consulting service capacity. (since the China Foundation association has not disclosed the scale of the public fund industry in March 2022, the total market scale this time adopts the wind caliber, and the calculation of market share may be slightly different from the previous report.)
From the perspective of channel: among the top 100 institutions, the shares of banks, third-party institutions and securities companies in stock + mixed ownership were 55.0%, 25.2% and 19.2% respectively, with a month on month ratio of - 3.6pct, - 1.2pct and + 4.7pct, and a year-on-year ratio of - 6.2pct, + 2.7% PCT and + 3.1pct respectively; The shares of non commodity basic guarantee volume were 48.8%, 34.9% and 15.8% respectively, with a month on month ratio of -4.0pct, + 0.3pct and + 3.6% PCT, and a year-on-year ratio of -9.1pct, + 7.7pct and + 1.0pct respectively.
Securities companies: the scale increased against the market because of the change in the caliber of ETF funds. The top 100 stocks + mixed ownership scale increased from + 21.0% to 1.1 trillion month on month (MOM), and the non commodity base increased from + 22.8% to 1.25 trillion month on month (MOM). The holding scale and market share of securities companies increased significantly, and five new securities companies entered the top 100 list. According to our judgment, the reason may be the change of statistical caliber (ETF adopts point value statistics at the end of the quarter without deducting the net purchase amount in the secondary market). Therefore, the scale and ranking of securities companies with strong ETF business have increased significantly. Among them, Huatai shares + mixed chain ratio + 44.7% to 123 billion; CITIC rose + 11% month on month to 116.3 billion yuan; GF + 9.7% mom to 77 billion yuan; Investment attraction increased by + 22.9% month on month to 61.2 billion yuan.
Third party institutions: ant and Tiantian are in a stable position. Tiantian fund is the head institution with the fastest scale improvement in recent year. The scale of the top 100 stocks + mixed ownership was - 12.6% to 1.5 trillion month on month, and the non goods base was - 4.5% to 2.7 trillion month on month. Among them, the daily fund stock + mixed scale was - 13.6% month on month to 463.9 billion; The non commodity base month on month ratio was - 8.4% to 617.5 billion. In the past year, the growth rate of Tiantian fund stock + mixed ownership scale reached 23.7% and that of non currency reached 42.8%. It is the fastest growing institution among the top 10 institutions year-on-year, and its ranking has been raised from No. 5 in 2021q1 to No. 3 at present.
Banks: there are fewer institutions on the list, and small and medium-sized institutions may face exit pressure. The scale of the top 100 stocks + mixed ownership was - 14.2% month on month and - 2.2% year-on-year to 3.2 trillion yuan, and the scale of non commodity basic insurance was - 12.5% month on month and + 2.0% year-on-year to 3.8 trillion yuan. There were 5 fewer institutions on the list than 2021q4. According to our judgment, the main reason is that the net value of the fund has fallen sharply, which has further tested the company and service ability of sales institutions. Previously, small and medium-sized banks that achieved a certain market share by virtue of account advantages in a good market are facing exit pressure.
Investment suggestion: Institutional business helps the development of ETF business of securities companies. It is suggested to pay attention to Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , CICC h with significant advantages in institutional business; The head pattern is gradually stable, and pay attention to the third-party leader China stock market news.
Risk warning: the capital market fluctuates sharply; The promotion of wealth management business of securities companies is less than expected; The growth of fund scale is less than expected
