Key investment points
Express delivery: high elasticity of profit recovery, investment in different tracks, optimistic about the leading development
The high elasticity of profit restoration has been realized steadily. In terms of direct marketing system, the multidimensional optimization of products, customers and network structure promotes the matching degree between production capacity and profit quality, brings the profit restoration of the main business of leading core express, and improves the quantity and quality of diversified territory; In terms of franchise system, the improvement of vicious price war under the guidance of supervision has officially entered the most essential profit recovery stage, and the annual performance is highly flexible and can be expected. From the perspective of fundamentals, at the single volume end, short-term epidemic disturbance only leads to the delay of performance prescription rather than the disappearance of performance demand. Pay attention to the significant growth of some business volume after the improvement of management and control; At the unit price side, the price policy is still strong, and attention is paid to the repair of price depressions such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen; The optimization of capital scale and expenditure still brings the effect of self-sustaining capital.
Invest in different tracks and be optimistic about the leading development. In terms of direct operation system, we are optimistic about the deep barriers of S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) main business, the high elasticity of profit restoration brought by the improvement of emerging business forms, and the deduction of non parent net profits of the company in 21q4 and 22q1 are 1.501 billion yuan and 912 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 46.1% and 180.4% respectively. The results of healthy operation are remarkable. In terms of franchise system, we are optimistic about the high elasticity of Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) profit restoration of A-share e-commerce express leaders. We expect Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) / Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) net profit attributable to parent company in 2022 to be 2.723 billion yuan / 3.255 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio of current stock price to be only 16.5 times / 18.9 times respectively. It is suggested to pay attention to the low valuation.
Highway: short-term epidemic disturbance, without changing the value of high dividend defense allocation
The short-term epidemic has disturbed the national highway traffic flow. In 2021, the national expressway traffic flow recovered steadily. The corresponding SW Expressway sector's annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 16.511 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.9%, an increase of 17.9% over 2019, of which 21q4's net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.246 billion yuan. In March 2022, the traffic volume of national highways decreased by 28% year-on-year, of which passenger cars and trucks decreased by 36% and 11% year-on-year respectively, mainly due to the frequent covid-19 epidemic in Shenzhen, Shanghai and other places, which disturbed the traffic demand of highways. Accordingly, the net profit of SW Expressway 22q1 was 3.449 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%. At present, the fundamentals have been marginally improved. From April 20 to 29 before the festival, the national highway truck traffic volume (Ministry of Communications) has increased by 6.3%, and the truck traffic volume reached 7.5357 million on April 29. The allocation value of leading high dividend defense remains unchanged. In terms of performance, the overall performance of the leader was stable. The net profit attributable to the parent company of Shandong Hi-Speed Company Limited(600350) , Guangdong Expressway A and Anhui Expressway Company Limited(600012) 22q1 increased steadily by 5.4%, 8.0% and 6.3% respectively year-on-year. In terms of dividends, the expressway belongs to the "loan investment construction operation" mode. In recent years, the profit cash ratio of the expressway sector has remained between 1.4-1.9. Based on the stable cash flow, it can actively repay shareholders with high dividends. In 2021, the average dividend proportion of Shandong Hi-Speed Company Limited(600350) , China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) , Guangdong Expressway a, Shenzhen Expressway Company Limited(600548) , Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited(600377) , Anhui Expressway Company Limited(600012) is 58%, of which Shandong Hi-Speed Company Limited(600350) , Guangdong Expressway A and Shenzhen Expressway Company Limited(600548) still have a high level of dividend proportion planning in 20222023.
Railway: the supply and demand of freight leader is resilient, and the passenger leader is waiting for the repair of the epidemic. In terms of medium and long-term space freight, it is relatively resilient. In March, the average daily traffic volume of Daqin line was 1253900 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.0% and a month on month increase of 13.3%. The average daily traffic volume rebounded to more than 12.5 billion tons, with a positive growth in the first month of the year. In mid April, a derailment occurred in Jizhou, Tianjin, which led to traffic interruption, and it has been quickly restored to traffic one day later; In addition, the spring repair started in some sections on April 21 and was fully carried out on May 1. After the clearing of short-term incidents, the annual infrastructure development is expected to promote. We expect that the traffic volume of Daqin line can further recover to 430440 million tons in 2022 Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 12.181 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 13.1%; 22q1 net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%. Short term contingencies do not change the logic of medium and long-term steady growth. The traffic volume has the support of "three-layer safety cushion" and superimposes the dividend commitment of absolute amount for 20 to 22 years (corresponding to the dividend rate of current closing price of 7.2%, and the dividend with low value and high value has the value of stable allocation.
In terms of passenger transport, we are waiting for the epidemic to be repaired. In 2021, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) this line transported 35.291 million passengers, with a year-on-year increase of 27.1%. The operating mileage of cross line vehicles was 72.504 million train kilometers, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. The operating mileage of Beijing, Fuzhou and Anhui in 2021 was 29.418 million train kilometers, with a year-on-year increase of 24.4%; The corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.816 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 49.1%, of which 21q4 net profit attributable to the parent company was 469 million yuan. In the first and second quarters of 2022, the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta and the capital was still disturbed. The net profit attributable to the parent company of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) 22q1 was 220 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.6%. However, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on April 29 has stressed the need to minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development, and pay attention to the epidemic control measures in the short term. After the epidemic is repaired in the medium and long term, there is still room for flexibility in Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) freight volume and freight rate.
Port: after the impact of the epidemic is cleared, it is expected that the volume and price will improve, and pay attention to the performance of the leaders with underestimated value
It is expected that the volume and price will improve after the impact of the epidemic is cleared. In 2021, the cargo throughput of China's coastal ports increased by 5.2% year-on-year to 9.973 billion tons, of which the cargo throughput of foreign trade increased by 4.6% year-on-year to 4.188 billion tons; Container throughput increased by 6.4% year-on-year to 249 million TEUs. 22q1 national coastal throughput increased by 1.8% year-on-year to 2.415 billion tons, of which the throughput of foreign trade goods decreased by 3.5% year-on-year to 999 million tons; Container cargo throughput increased by 2.5% year-on-year to 59.83 million TEUs. Due to the disturbance of the epidemic in April, the cumulative container throughput of the eight hub ports decreased by 2.6% year-on-year in the middle of last year, of which foreign trade increased by 0.3% and domestic trade decreased by 10.7%. Looking forward to the follow-up, after the impact of the epidemic is cleared, the manufacturing industry will resume work, the supply chain will be opened, and the port throughput may resume steady growth. In addition, the optimization of container rates may bring some performance flexibility.
Pay attention to the leading ports with undervalued value Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) , Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) :
1) Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) in 2021, the container throughput reached 23.71 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, the dry bulk cargo throughput reached 210 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and the liquid bulk cargo throughput reached 110 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; Accordingly, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 3.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%.
22q1 Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) cargo throughput was 147 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and container throughput was 5.9 million TEUs, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3%; The corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 was 1.142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. Considering the future volume and price increase of the company, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years to reach 11.4% CAGR, corresponding to only 0.62 times peg.
2) Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) in terms of cargo throughput, the home port handled 539 million tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, of which the container throughput was 47.033 million TEUs, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, ranking first in the world for 12 consecutive years; Accordingly, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 14.682 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.74%. 22q1 the total cargo throughput of Shanghai port was 170 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%; The throughput of foreign trade goods was 105 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%; The container throughput was 12.262 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and the overall throughput increased steadily; The corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 was 5.494 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.0%. According to the prediction of Shanghai Municipal Transportation Commission, the average daily container throughput of Shanghai port in April is expected to be about 100000 TEUs, which can fully meet the transportation needs of cargo owners; In addition, it is estimated that 1.99 million TEUs will be transferred from water to water in April, accounting for 65% of Hong Kong's throughput. We judge that after the epidemic is repaired, the business is diversified and still has performance toughness.
Bulk logistics: leading transformation service providers extend chains and categories, and realize the logic of improving quality and efficiency
In 2021, the price of bulk commodities was in a high boom cycle (the total index / steel / energy / nonferrous metals / agricultural products / minerals were + 28.8% / + 38.2% / + 51.1% / + 35.1% / + 18.1% / + 37.0% year-on-year respectively). China's leading bulk commodity supply chain benefited from service mode, customer structure, volume scale, price dividend and other factors to achieve high performance growth. In the first quarter of 2022, the price differentiation of bulk commodities intensified (the total index / steel / energy / nonferrous metals / agricultural products / minerals were + 14.6% / 40.4% / 45.3% / 9.3% / 1.6% / - 13.0% year-on-year respectively). The advantages of leading companies became more prominent and their performance grew steadily.
1) Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) in terms of net profit attributable to parent company in 2021, 2.160 billion yuan, up 66.2% year on year; 22q1 net profit attributable to the parent company was 466 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.8%. The new phase of equity incentive can be superimposed with stable dividends, which is optimistic about the offensive and defensive characteristics brought by the steady growth of the company's performance.
2) Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) in terms of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 6.098 billion yuan, an increase of 35.4% year-on-year; 22q1 net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.008 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.8%. The company's supply chain and real estate are coordinated, and it is suggested to pay attention to the target of stable growth of undervalued value.
Risk warning: covid-19 epidemic situation continues to be disturbed; Logistics demand is lower than expected; Passenger demand is lower than expected
