The film industry recovered in 2021, but in the case of repeated local epidemic and lack of imported films, the overall box office recovery is still affected. The key variable in 22 years is to pay attention to the progress of the epidemic.
In 2020, the film industry was impacted by the epidemic, and China Film Co.Ltd(600977) continued to recover after gradually returning to work. In 2021, with the help of high-quality films such as Changjin lake, Hello, Li Huanying and Chinatown detective 3, China’s film box office (including service fees) reached 47 billion in 2021, and the total number of film viewers recovered to 1.17 billion in 2021. However, the local recurrence of the epidemic and the insufficient number of imported films caused by the overseas epidemic have also hindered the film arrangement and the audience’s willingness to watch the film to a certain extent. There is still uncertainty on the road to the recovery of the film market. In 2022, we will focus on the progress of epidemic prevention and control outside China.
The schedule effect will be strengthened in 2021. The large schedule represented by the Spring Festival and national day shows strong performance and is relatively flat on weekdays.
In terms of monthly box office performance in 21 years, it shows obvious schedule effect. The schedule effect is obvious in recent years. Especially under the influence of the epidemic, high-quality film sources are more concentrated in schedule release and strengthen the trend. The Spring Festival Schedule in 2021 reached a new high, and the box office exceeded the level before the epidemic in 2019, reaching 7.17 billion yuan. In February 21, the box office of a single month reached 12.27 billion yuan; The National Day files “Changjin Lake” (5.774 billion) and “me and my parents” (1.476 billion) also brought new upsurge. The box office reached 7.58 billion yuan in October, and “Changjin Lake” became the box office champion in Chinese film history. The box office in other months was relatively flat, basically maintained at about 2 billion yuan.
The performance of the Spring Festival in 2021 is strong, and the audience’s enthusiasm for watching movies is high. The total box office and film viewing people of the Spring Festival break new heights.
The box office during the Spring Festival in 2021 exceeded the level before the epidemic in 2019, reaching 7.84 billion yuan (including service fee). In 2021, the Spring Festival file was restored, and high-quality films such as Hello, Li Huanying and Chinatown detective 3 were released. The audience’s pent up viewing needs were met, and the box office exceeded a new high. From the perspective of the box office proportion of the Spring Festival, the box office proportion of the Spring Festival in 2016-2019 is about 6% – 10%, and the box office proportion of the Spring Festival in 21 years is as high as 16.73%. We expect that the 22 year Spring Festival will also maintain a relatively high proportion of the box office in the whole year.
The Spring Festival has 11 films on file. On the 13th, the official announced that the water gate bridge of Changjin lake will boost the popularity of the Spring Festival, and the popularity of miracle · stupid child and the four seas takes the lead.
The sequel of Changjin lake, shuimen bridge of Changjin lake, produced by Bona pictures, China Film Co.Ltd(600977) and others, was officially announced on January 13 for the Spring Festival. One hour later, the number of people who wanted to see it reached 225000; The number of people who want to see miracle stupid children produced by bad monkey film, China Film Co.Ltd(600977) , Wanda film and television, etc. is 415000; Directed by Han Han, Ali film, cat’s eye, Hengdian, Guomai Culture & Media Co.Ltd(301052) and other films “Four Seas” have reached 373000 people who want to see; The number of people who want to see the new trump comedy films Charlotte’s troubles and Xihong’s richest man is not too calm has reached 331000; The number of people who want to see the IP series animated film “bear haunt · return to the earth” produced by Huaqiang Fangte has reached 217000; The sniper produced by ray film and directed by Zhang Yimou wants to see 74000 people.
Investment suggestion: the film industry as a whole is still in the recovery trend in 2021. The key influencing factor in 2022 is still the progress of epidemic prevention and control, and pay attention to the progress of high-quality content archiving. Although the film market has experienced a cold winter in the past two years, the long-term logic of high-quality film and television content and cinema companies has not changed, and it is expected to improve the head concentration. As a post epidemic sector, if the epidemic situation is effectively controlled, the sector can rebound.
In the short term, as an important film season, we expect that the box office concentration effect will continue. It is recommended to pay attention to the relevant companies of the Spring Festival, including the composite leader [ Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) ] (miracle stupid child in the Spring Festival), the animation leader [ Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) ] (sniper in the Spring Festival) Ticketing platform [cat’s eye entertainment] (Spring Festival file “Four Seas”, “this killer is not too calm”), [ China Film Co.Ltd(600977) ] (Spring Festival file “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake”, “miracle · stupid child”), And other interested parties [ Shanghai Film Co.Ltd(601595) (Shanghai film group participated in the production of Spring Festival file shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake), Hengdian Entertainment Co.Ltd(603103) (Spring Festival file four seas), Ali film (Spring Festival file shuimen bridge of Changjin lake, miracle · stupid child), four seas], Guomai Culture & Media Co.Ltd(301052) (Spring Festival file four seas), Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation(002905) , Huayi Brothers Media Corporation(300027) ], etc.
Risk warning: epidemic impact; Film box office volatility; The audience’s willingness to watch the film is uncertain.
