Key investment points
Thinking this week: how to view the impact of investment and financing fluctuations on CXO orders?
Investment and financing fluctuate normally, and investment and financing account for a relatively low proportion of R & D investment. In CXO: the password behind high-frequency investment and financing data! 20228, we explained through data analysis that in 2020, the transformation of innovative drug investment and financing (PE / VC) into R & D investment accounted for only 13.81% of the global biomedical R & D investment.
Local CXO order & performance is not affected by investment and financing fluctuations The revenue growth of Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) 2022q1 drug discovery business reached 46.6%, the growth rate of newly signed orders of Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) from January to February 2022 exceeded 65%, the growth rate of Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) laboratory service revenue reached 38.67%, and the growth rate of newly signed orders of Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) 2022q1 exceeded 1 billion (yoy65%), both the data of newly signed orders of CXO leaders and the business growth maintained a high growth trend.
It can be seen from the above data that it is difficult to judge the trend of CXO orders only through the investment and financing trend of the global medical and health / biomedical industry. We also found that the local CXO business model has changed from single business to multi business driven, and the layout of bio drug cro / cdmo, cgtco / cdmo, polypeptide and oligonucleotide cdmo has gradually entered the cashing period. Under the basic situation that the research and development of macromolecular and small molecule drugs in the global biomedical industry continues to advance steadily, the continuous increase of new business R & D investment is also expected to drive CXO enterprises to quickly complete the coordinated development of multi business models. It is optimistic that the local CXO will continue its high growth trend under the new stage of multi business driving.
Performance this week: it fell slightly, and the valuation price performance of the sector is prominent
The pharmaceutical sector fell 0.93% this week, 1.01 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, ranking 10th in all industries. In terms of turnover, the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry this week was 498.4 billion yuan, accounting for 11.2% of the total turnover of all a shares, an increase of 0.2pct over the previous week, 2.9pct higher than the central level since 2018, and the turnover is still at a historically high level. From the perspective of valuation, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector (historical TTM, overall method, excluding negative values) was 24 times, down 1.8pct month on month. The valuation premium rate of the pharmaceutical industry relative to the CSI 300 was 118%, down 13.2pct from the previous week, lower than the central level in the past four years (182.0%). According to the classification of wind CITIC medicine, the largest increase in pharmaceutical circulation this week was 1.4%, followed by the increase of 0.5% in traditional Chinese medicine. Medical devices (down 3.9%), biomedicine (down 2.9%) and chemical APIs (down 2.6%) fell more. In terms of pharmaceutical companies and specialty pharmaceutical companies, which fell by 1.5%, while the pharmaceutical companies and specialty pharmaceutical companies fell by 1.5%, while the pharmaceutical companies and specialty pharmaceutical companies fell by 1.5%. For individual stocks, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) fell by 11% due to the decline in the performance of 2021 annual report and 2022 first quarter report, which also drove the innovative medicine sector to fall more. In the medical device sector, Tellgen Corporation(300642) (down 11.7%) and Berry Genomics Co.Ltd(000710) (down 10.1%) fell more Dian Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(300244) and Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(603882) rose by 16.3% and 15.9% respectively due to better than expected performance in 2022q1, leading the rise of medical service sector Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) due to the better than expected performance of 2022q1 medical and American sector, the stock price rose sharply, driving the rise of generic pharmaceutical sector. We continue to be optimistic about the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector and consumption attribute sector with clear medium and long-term industrial upgrading logic under high valuation and cost performance, such as CXO, API, pharmaceutical upstream, consumption (vaccine / traditional Chinese Medicine) and other companies.
Pharmaceutical investment strategy in 2022: grasp manufacturing and welcome innovation
We suggest that investors should break the "core assets" and "sector concept" so that they can look at the investment opportunities in the upstream and manufacturing links with the industrial chain thinking, and the innovative pharmaceutical machinery will continue to survive the fittest during the transition period. We believe that in 2022, medicine should adhere to the investment strategy of "grasping manufacturing and welcoming innovation". Specifically, it is recommended to focus on:
1) manufacturing sector: API, cdmo and other subdivided fields, recommended Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) , etc.
2) upstream: the upstream: pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, consumables, and other fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and the upstream: the upstream: the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables. The upstream: the upstream: the upstream: the upstream: the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and so on the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, such as pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and so on, and the recommendations are recommended in the fields of senszonzonzonzonpine international, the Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) of the Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) 35171 payattention to Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) etc.
3) innovation: equipment and pharmaceutical companies with international capabilities recommend Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , minimally invasive medical treatment, etc., and pay attention to Beijing Balance Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688198) , Baiji Shenzhou, Xinda biology, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , kangfang biology, etc.
4) others: Other: consumer attributes, medical services, and innovative supporting industry companies; consumer attributes, medical services, and innovative supporting industry companies; recommending Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) ' \ , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , etc.
Risk tips
Changes in industrial policies; The end of the epidemic was not as expected; R & D progress is less than expected.
