Key investment points
Market review: this week, the pharmaceutical and biological index fell 4%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.46 percentage points, and the rise and fall of the industry ranked ninth. Since the beginning of 2022, the pharmaceutical industry has fallen by 25.52%, 6.81 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index, and the industry ranks 24th in terms of rise and fall. This week, the valuation level (pe-ttm) of the pharmaceutical industry was 24 times, with a premium rate of 84.8% (- 2.96pp) relative to all a shares, 42.3% (- 2.15pp) relative to all A-Shares excluding banks, and 119.3% (- 7.55pp) relative to CSI 300. In terms of pharmaceutical sub industry, no sub industry sector rose this week, while other biological products were the sub industry with the smallest decline, with a decline of about – 0.2%. Medical equipment and medical R & D outsourcing industry ranked the second and third with the smallest decline, about – 1.4% and – 1.8% respectively. The sub industry with the smallest decline since the beginning of the year is pharmaceutical circulation, down about 12.3%.
Medicine is irrational and pessimistic in the short term, and can be doubly optimistic in the medium and long term. Under the background of severe epidemic situation, peripheral interest rate increase and contraction, RMB devaluation and macroeconomic pressure, the overall market has been significantly adjusted this week, and the pharmaceutical sector is also facing irrational decline in the short term. After nearly a year of correction, the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector has been at a historical low (24 times pe-ttm), and the current fund position in the pharmaceutical sector also belongs to a low region. Looking ahead, considering the impact of the epidemic on the operation in March and April, we believe that the pharmaceutical sector will usher in the bottom of performance in 22q1 and Q2, which is expected to improve in the third and fourth quarters, the medium and long-term fundamentals are stable, and the long-term funds can be doubly optimistic. We expect that the “social aspect clearing” of the follow-up epidemic is coming. It is suggested to add epidemic varieties, such as routine diagnosis and treatment services and new medical infrastructure related tracks (leading in medical services and medical equipment). Combined with the disclosure of the annual report and the first quarterly report, it is suggested to focus on three directions: Traditional Chinese medicine, independent consumption and resumption of production and work after the epidemic.
Post epidemic recovery is the core theme. On April 29, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. Under the background of the spread of the epidemic, the tense international situation and the increasing downward pressure on the economy, it established the goal of striving to achieve 5.5% economic growth, and will implement a positive fiscal policy to promote consumption. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in Shanghai, we will focus on the main line of post epidemic demand recovery in the future. 1) Traditional Chinese medicine, focusing on Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited(600329) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , etc. 2) With independent consumption attribute, focus on Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300357) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) , Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , etc. 3) Resumption of production and work after the epidemic, focusing on Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) , Shanghai General Healthy Information And Technology Co.Ltd(605186) , Maider Medical Industry Equipment Co.Ltd(688310) , etc.
The steady combination of this week’week’s steady combination: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ( Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) ), Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) ( Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) ), Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) (1877).
The elastic combination of this week will be the elastic combination of the elastic combination of the week of the week of the week of the week: Kyland Technology Co.Ltd(300353) 5 ( Shanghai General Healthy Information And Technology Co.Ltd(605186) ), Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) ( Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) ), Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(603882) ( Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(603882) ).
Risk warning: drug price reduction risk; The implementation progress of medical reform policy is lower than the expected risk; Risk of R & D failure.
