Weekly view:
The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee released a positive signal: on April 29, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee stressed the need to effectively control key risks and hold the bottom line of no systemic risks. Adhere to the positioning of “housing without speculation”, support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions, support rigid and improved housing demand, optimize the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. We believe that keeping the bottom line of no systemic risk before “housing, housing and speculation” reflects that monetary policy may have room for further easing. At the same time, the Politburo meeting released positive signals from both sides of supply and demand. On the supply side, optimizing the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds is conducive to alleviating the liquidity pressure of some real estate enterprises; On the demand side, under the demand of supporting improved housing, the depth and breadth of urban policy coverage are expected to continue to expand.
Three places completed the first batch of centralized land supply: 1) on April 29, the first batch of centralized land supply in Shenzhen ended, and all 8 plots reached the top; 2) On April 25, the first round of centralized land supply in Hangzhou came to an end, and 59 of the 60 plots were traded, of which 23 reached the top, with an overall premium rate of 6.4%%; 3) On April 25, the first round of centralized land supply in Tianjin ended. Of the 30 plots, 15 were suspended, 9 were unsold, 5 were traded at the reserve price and 1 hit the top. The heat of soil shooting in the three places is differentiated, and different regions in the same city are also cold and hot. Shenzhen and Hangzhou are located in South and East China, where demand exceeds supply, and real estate enterprises have high enthusiasm to participate in the auction; Hangzhou’s top plots are located in the core sector of the main urban area, and most of the plots traded at the reserve price are located in the suburbs. We believe that the heat of the land market reflects the land acquisition logic that real estate enterprises attach importance to the de marketing under the background of the downward market boom.
We believe that there is no substantial improvement in the current total data, and the regulation policy is still dominated by a loose rhythm. At the same time, the marginal improvement of the operation quality and sales scale of some high-quality enterprises is obvious. Under this environment, we continue to recommend three main lines: 1) the dilemma reversal enterprises that benefit from the optimization of centralized land supply policy in the early stage: China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; 2) Leading real estate enterprises under the continuous improvement of competition pattern: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ; 3) High rated steady operation private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Xuhui holding group.
Industry tracking
Sales review (04.23-04.29): 33 key monitoring cities, with a total transaction area of 2.791 million m2, an increase of 8.2% month on month; In 2022, the cumulative turnover was 5053.9% 10000 m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 44.5%. Among them, 441000 square meters were sold in first tier cities, an increase of 10.1% over last week. In 2022, a total of 9.253 million square meters were sold, a cumulative decrease of 38.1% year-on-year; Second tier cities sold 1.495 million square meters, an increase of 5.9% over last week. In 2022, a total of 25.236 million square meters were sold, a cumulative decrease of 34.3% year-on-year; The third tier cities sold 855000 square meters, an increase of 11.4% over last week. In 2022, a total of 16.051 million square meters were sold, a total year-on-year decrease of 57.4%.
Land supply (04.18-04.24): the planned construction area of land and homestead supply in Baicheng is 6.55 million m2. In 2022, the cumulative supply of planned construction area is 129.65 million m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 54.2% and a supply-demand ratio of 1.4. In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of land supplied by Baicheng is 10463 yuan / m2, and the average listing price in recent four weeks is 6794 yuan / m2, a month on month decrease of 7.8% and a year-on-year increase of 4.9%.
Land transaction (04.18-04.24): the planned construction area of residential land in Baicheng is 5.63 million square meters, with a cumulative transaction of 92.48 million square meters in 2022, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 57.2%. In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of residential land in Baicheng was 8047 yuan / m2, a month on month increase of 129.1%, a year-on-year increase of 45.1%, and the overall premium rate was 2.6%. In 2022, the average floor price was 4549 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, and the premium rate was 3.6%, a decrease of 16.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tighter than expected; The regulatory policy was tightened more than expected.
