Waterproof industry: 100 billion continues to increase, and the steady state is still early. This paper comprehensively calculates the waterproof scale in various fields of real estate and infrastructure. Our conclusion is that 1) the waterproof market scale from 2022 to 2023 is about 149.1 billion yuan, 156.1 billion yuan. 2) with the promotion and implementation of the "new waterproof regulations", the contradiction between low-cost investment and high-cost maintenance is gradually prominent, and the proportion of waterproof cost is expected to continue to rise. 3) the maintenance in the field of housing construction is greater than the new intersection, and the contribution of stock renovation is increased. At the same time, we believe that the waterproof market has not reached a steady state. This paper does not discuss the improvement of the concentration of the supply side, but from the perspective of maintaining the growth of demand and the change of product structure, the breeding of diversified market opportunities may have just opened.
New real estate: contribution increment, under pressure in recent years
We estimate that the waterproof scale of new houses from 2020 to 2023 will be 54.5 billion yuan, 52.2 billion yuan, 50.8 billion yuan and 55.9 billion yuan, showing a slight fluctuation. The waterproof scenes of the new real estate include roof, basement, kitchen and bathroom, among which the waterproof investment of basement and roof is large. In this paper, for the convenience of calculation, in the scenario of new houses, we correspond the newly started area of houses to the basement and roof, and the completed area of houses to the kitchen and bathroom. We use the newly started and completed area as the calculation benchmark of the waterproof scale of new real estate, and the calculation objects include residential buildings, office buildings and commercial operation houses.
Repair of old houses: large stock space
We split the waterproof stock market into "minor repair" market (local leakage repair and small-scale renovation) and "major repair" market (overall repair). 1) Minor repair: the daily repair is gradually moving towards the front of the stage. When we calculate that the overall leakage rate is 40%, the waterproof scale of the repair market in 20222023 is about 66.269.1 billion yuan. There may be problems such as not being repaired in time and low maintenance standards. 2) Overhaul: the old reform catalyzes the demand and urban renewal relay. We estimate that under the scenario of 60% repair rate, the market scale of overhaul waterproof driven by the old reform in 20222023 will be 3.054 billion yuan and 1.966 billion yuan. 3) Roof photovoltaic: the growth rate of new demand is expected to accelerate. We estimate that bapv will bring waterproof demand of about 9 billion yuan / year.
Infrastructure construction: take high-speed railway, urban rail and underground pipe gallery as the main body of calculation, and pay attention to the release potential of comprehensive infrastructure construction
The goal of steady growth is firm. We attach great importance to infrastructure and expand investment. Waterproof materials, as an important basic material, are expected to follow the significant growth of the total amount of infrastructure from 2022 to 2023. We expect the average annual waterproof scale of infrastructure to exceed 20 billion yuan. (1) Railway transportation: high-speed railway is the main force, with a peak of 7.3 billion in 2019 in recent years. (2) Rail transit: it is estimated that the annual increment brought by subway is about 2 billion yuan. (3) Underground pipe gallery: it is expected to accelerate growth. We predict that the scale will reach 11.1 billion yuan in 2022.
Investment suggestion: in 2021, the market share of Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) waterproof revenue is about 20%, and the supply side is optimistic about the improvement of concentration. On the demand side, we are optimistic that ① the repair space will continue to improve, ② the potential of comprehensive infrastructure will be released, and ③ the new regulations will drive the expansion of the industry. [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] [ Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ] [ Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) ] [ Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ] [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ] [ Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) ] [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ] [ Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) ]].
Risk tip: the implementation of real estate policy is not as expected; The price fluctuation of raw materials is less than expected; There is an error in the calculation. Profit forecast, valuation and rating of key companies
