The oil and gas boom is high, the performance of “three barrels of oil” has achieved high growth, and the “increase of reserves and production” has been steadily promoted. In Q1 2022, the crude oil market maintained a tight supply and demand pattern, superimposed with geopolitical premium, and the international crude oil price rose rapidly. The upstream oil and gas exploration and development business and oil refining business of “three barrels of oil” achieved good performance. In 2022, in Q1, PetroChina / SINOPEC / CNOOC realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 39.1/226/34.3 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 41% / 24% / 132% respectively. In 2022q1, “three barrels of oil” continued to strengthen exploration and development, and the “increase in reserves and production” of oil and gas was steadily promoted. PetroChina produced 224.9 million barrels of crude oil in 2022q1, a year-on-year increase of + 2%; 1235.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas were produced, a year-on-year increase of + 5%; Sinopec produced 69.07 million barrels of crude oil in 2022q1, a year-on-year increase of + 1%; The production of natural gas was 313.9 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year increase of + 8%; CNOOC produced 119.6 million barrels of crude oil in Q1 of 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 7%; 184 billion cubic feet of natural gas were produced, a year-on-year increase of + 19%.
In the era of high oil prices, the upstream business of “three barrels of oil” is expected to fully benefit. In the era of high oil prices, “three barrels of oil” with upstream assets is expected to fully benefit. We calculate the performance elasticity of “three barrels of oil”. According to our calculation, under the oil distribution price of USD 100 / barrel, the net profits of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and CNOOC upstream business are 165.8 billion yuan, 47.5 billion yuan and 85.9 billion yuan respectively The upstream performance of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and CNOOC increased with the rise of crude oil price. When the price of oil distribution rises by US $1 / barrel, CNOOC has the highest EPS thickening, followed by Petrochina Company Limited(601857) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) has the lowest EPS thickening. The marginal profit of “three barrels of oil” gradually decreases with the rise of oil price, and finally tends to be stable under high oil price The profit curves of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) are very close, and their oil production businesses gradually start to make profits after the oil distribution price exceeds US $50 / barrel, but Petrochina Company Limited(601857) has slightly stronger profitability due to its cost advantage; CNOOC’s oil production business can start to make profits after the oil distribution price exceeds $45 / barrel.
Weekly rise and fall of sectors: in the past five trading days, most of the sectors in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a decline. This week, the Shanghai stock index fell by 1.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.27%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.07% and the gem index rose by 0.98%. CITIC basic chemical fell 1.7%, ranking 15th in all sectors. In the past five trading days, most of the sub sectors of the chemical industry showed a decline. The top five sub sectors were carbon fiber (+ 8.5%), lithium chemicals (+ 5.1%), electronic chemicals (+ 0.9%), potassium fertilizer (+ 0.8%) and pesticides (+ 0.4%).
Rise and fall of individual stocks: in the past five trading days, the top gainers in the basic chemical sector are: Shandong Cynda Chemical Co.Ltd(603086) (+ 18.82%), Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological Co.Ltd(600538) (+ 18.64%), Gch Technology Co.Ltd(688625) (+ 18.28%), Shandong Head Co.Ltd(002810) (+ 16.11%), Adama Ltd(000553) (+ 15.54%).
Investment suggestions: (1) the upstream oil and gas sector is suggested to pay attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , CNOOC, Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) and other oil service targets. (2) White horse, the leader of undervalued chemical industry: it is suggested to pay attention to ① three chemical white horses: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) ; ② Private refining and chemical fiber sector: Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ; ③ Light hydrocarbon cracking sector: Satellite chemistry, Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; ④ Coal to olefin: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) . (3) Plate: sector sector of new material sector: suggestions and concerns: sector sector sector: sector sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: the following concerns: ① semiconductor materials: the Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) ; ② Wind power materials: carbon fiber, polyether amine, matrix resin, interlayer materials, structural adhesive and other related enterprises; ③ Lithium battery, lithium chemical industry and other related materials; ④ Photovoltaic materials: upstream silicon materials, EVA, soda ash and other related enterprises; ⑤ OLED industry chain: Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Xi’An Manareco New Materials Co.Ltd(688550) , Jilin Oled Material Tech Co.Ltd(688378) , Puyang Huicheng Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300481) . (4) Traditional cycle sector: it is suggested to pay attention to relevant targets in the fields of pesticides, coal chemical industry, urea, dyes, vitamins, chlor alkali, etc.
Risk analysis: the risk of rapid decline and high oil price; Downstream demand is less than expected risk.
