Investment summary:
Comments on 2021 annual report and 2022q1 quarterly report: stable development of automobile market
The sales volume returned to positive growth: in 2021, the automobile sales volume was 26.275 million, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. In the first quarter of 2022, the automobile sales volume was 6.509 million, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.2%. With the improvement of epidemic prevention and control and the implementation of consumption stimulus policies, it is expected that the overall production and sales of automobiles in 2022 will be basically the same as that in 2021.
Continuous high growth of new energy: in 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 3.521 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times and a penetration rate of 13.4%. In the first quarter of 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.257 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times and a penetration rate of 19.3%. It is expected that the sales volume in 2022 is expected to exceed 5.5 million, with a year-on-year increase of 56% and a penetration rate of 21%.
Industry load forward: in 2021, the revenue and net profit of the automobile industry maintained rapid growth. In 2021, the total operating revenue was 3135.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 91.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 18.2% year-on-year. Due to the high base in the second half of 2020, the growth rate of revenue and net profit in the second half of 2021 decreased significantly. In the first quarter of 2022, affected by China's epidemic and supply chain instability, the overall performance of the industry was still in the decline channel. Since the second half of 2021, the price rise of raw materials has intensified, resulting in a continuous slight decline in the gross profit margin of the industry. In the first quarter of 2022, auto enterprises ensured that the gross profit margin returned to positive growth through price increases and other measures.
The sub sectors are mixed: the passenger car sector leads the industry, the commercial vehicle sector is in the doldrums, the auto parts sector continues to perform strongly, the auto service sector resonates with consumer demand, and the motorcycle and other sectors return to the growth trend.
Market review:
As of the closing on April 29, the auto sector was - 1.7%, and the CSI 300 index was 0.1%. The decline of the auto sector was 1.8 percentage points higher than that of the CSI 300 index. From the perspective of sector ranking, the rise and fall of the automobile industry last week ranked 15th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan, with a fair performance. Since the beginning of the year, the automobile sector has been - 28.6%, ranking 25th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan.
Performance of weekly rise and fall of sub sectors: most sectors fell, with electric passenger vehicles (3.2%) and motorcycles (1.1%) as the rising sectors, with automobile dealers (- 7.1%), automobile comprehensive services (- 6.5%) and other auto parts (- 6.3%) leading the decline.
Up and down performance of sub sectors since the beginning of the year: all sectors have fallen to varying degrees, with automotive electronic and electrical systems (- 39.3%), commercial trucks (- 38.6%), other auto parts (- 36.4%) and tire hubs (- 35.7%) leading the decline.
Top five gainers and Losers: Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Mianyang Fulin Precision Co.Ltd(300432) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Shanghai Xinpeng Industry Co.Ltd(002328) .
The top five in terms of rise and fall: Zhejiang Changhua Auto Parts Co.Ltd(605018) , Shanghai Lianming Machinery Co.Ltd(603006) , Sichuan Haowu Electromechanical Co.Ltd(000757) , Dynavolt Renewable Energy Technology (Henan) Co.Ltd(002684) , Ningbo Fangzheng Automobile Mould Co.Ltd(300998) .
Investment strategy and key recommendations this week:
The automobile sector should pay attention to the opportunities brought by the performance improvement of the leading enterprises of undervalued complete vehicles and parts, and the core target of the high-quality track of new energy electrification and intelligence. Therefore, we suggest to pay attention to: independent automobile enterprises with first mover advantages in the field of new energy, such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , ideal automobile, Xiaopeng automobile, etc; Leaders in undervalued parts with stable performance, such as Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , etc; Electric and intelligent core targets of high-quality track, such as Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , etc; Beneficiary shares of domestic substitution concept, such as Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , etc; The pulling effect of strong vehicle enterprises on core parts, such as Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , etc. Recommended combination this week: Byd Company Limited(002594) 20%, Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) 20%, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) 20%, Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) 20% and Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) 20%.
Risk tip: the car sales volume is lower than expected; The implementation of stimulus policies for the automobile industry was less than expected; The risk of intensified market competition; Risk of shortage of key raw materials such as chips and rising cost of raw materials; The epidemic control was less than expected.
