The central bank released financial statistics for 2021. At the end of December, the balance of RMB loans reached 192.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, 0.1pct lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year And 1.2pct. In December, RMB loans increased by 1.13 trillion yuan. In the whole year, RMB loans increased by 19.95 trillion yuan. The balance of RMB deposits was 232.25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, 0.7 PCT higher than that at the end of last month, 0.9pct. Lower than the same period of last year. RMB deposits increased by 1.16 trillion yuan in December. RMB deposits increased by 19.68 trillion yuan throughout the year.
Credit growth is down and demand is insufficient. The amount of bill financing increased steadily, and the growth of medium and long-term loans was weak. The impulse intention of bill financing at the end of the year is obvious, and the medium and long-term loan is relatively weak, indicating that the credit line is sufficient, but the entity credit demand is insufficient. Household loans contracted and corporate loans rebounded slightly. The overall consumption power of residents is weakened due to the early consumption guided by e-commerce promotion. In addition, commercial banks increased mortgage investment after the loosening of real estate policies in the early stage, and the momentum of sustained growth of residents’ medium and long-term loans was limited. Among the new loans of enterprises, bill financing accounts for a high proportion, and the demand for real credit is insufficient, mainly due to the steady growth of impulse at the end of the year.
Fiscal expenditure increased, and the scale of deposits increased seasonally. The new deposits of resident households recorded 1889.2 billion yuan; New deposits of enterprises recorded 1367 billion yuan; New fiscal deposits recorded – 1030.2 billion yuan; Deposits from non bank financial institutions increased by – 384.3 billion yuan. At the end of the year, fiscal expenditure accelerated, and deposits flowed to residents and enterprise departments. At the same time, banks impacted the deposit scale at the end of the year, and the deposits of residents and enterprises increased seasonally.
Investment suggestion: near the end of the year, the credit demand has not fully recovered, and the bank should also reserve projects for the coming year, and the overall credit supply is weak. Looking forward to the future, the liquidity is reasonable and abundant, the economy grows steadily, the confidence of real investment is improved, the credit demand is expected to recover, the growth of credit scale is driven, and the performance of commercial banks is expected to improve steadily. It is recommended to focus on banks with comprehensive business layout, stable asset quality, stronger bargaining power and market competitive advantages: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) . Maintain the rating of “synchronous market” in the industry.
Risk tip: economic growth is less than expected; Policy regulation exceeded expectations; Asset quality down
