Key investment points:
The sector trend is low before and high after. In this period, the photovoltaic industry showed a bottom rebound trend, with a weekly increase of 3.73%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. The weekly turnover of photovoltaic sector was 155191 billion yuan, with a month on month volume. Individual stocks in the sector rebounded to the bottom, and the profit-making effect improved significantly. Among them, Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Co.Ltd(601137) rose ahead.
In the first quarter of 2022, China’s photovoltaic installation demand is strong. The National Energy Administration announced the construction and operation of photovoltaic power generation in the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter, the grid connected capacity increased by 13.21 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 147.8%. Among them, the centralized photovoltaic power station is 4.341 million KW and the distributed photovoltaic power station is 8.87 million KW.
The price of silicon material is strong, and the downstream price is basically stable. According to the data of the branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the transaction in China’s polysilicon market is relatively active this week, and the price of silicon material continues to rise slightly, which is mainly due to the continuous increase in the demand of downstream silicon material, Limited Logistics in some regions and the lack of import
The silicon material has not recovered due to the influence of maintenance and epidemic situation. The price of downstream links is relatively stable, and the cost pressure appears.
The annual report and the first quarter of 2022 are intensively released, and there are obvious differences in the profits of all links of the industrial chain. According to the annual report and the data of the first quarter, due to the continuous shortage of silicon material supply, the price remains high and other factors, the profit of silicon material is relatively rich; Due to the shortage of raw materials, the profitability of silicon wafer is at a high level; The cost pressure of batteries and components increases; The shipment volume of integrated component factory continues to grow, and there are differences in the profitability of head enterprises; The price of photovoltaic glass is low, the prices of soda ash, quartz sand and fuel power are rising, and the profitability is declining.
Investment suggestion: the annual report and the first quarter report were released at the end of April, and the impact of short-term performance on the company’s share price was weakened. During the year, the photovoltaic sector focused on technological changes, silicon material supply and demand, changes in the price of the industrial chain and changes in China’s external installed capacity demand. The short-term sector valuation returns to the low position, and it is expected that the follow-up will follow the market to grind the bottom. Investors are advised to pay active attention to integrated module plants, photovoltaic equipment and thermal field material enterprises with reasonable valuation.
Risk warning: the price decline of raw materials is less than expected; The global installed demand is lower than expected; Periodic supply-demand mismatch, overcapacity and the risk of declining profitability.
