Multiple negative expectations have basically responded, the bottom range highlights the value, and the sector may usher in the opportunity of reversal; The cost side or mitigation superposition terminal vehicle price increase and favorable price are relatively smooth. It is suggested to focus on the forward-looking layout opportunities of lithium batteries with good margins.
1) multiple negative factors have the fundamentals, and the bottom of the sector is ready to highlight the value. Since the beginning of the year, due to the jump in lithium carbonate price, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the increase of terminal selling price of automobile enterprises, the outbreak of epidemic in many places in China, the higher interest rate in the United States than expected, the short-term sales volume was lower than expected, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) first quarter report was lower than expected, and multiple negative expectations followed, resulting in a sharp correction of the sector due to the continuous negative impact. We judge that the above influencing factors have basically responded, and the epidemic is still the biggest uncertainty affecting the fundamentals (i.e. performance) and emotions (i.e. valuation). Once the epidemic situation turns better, it may usher in the bottom reversal of the sector and cherish it.
2) Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) q1 is lower than expected or leads to irrational fluctuations in the sector. It is recommended to bargain hunting and layout high-quality assets. Due to the rising price of raw materials, the performance of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) q1 is under pressure, and the market pessimism is strong. However, the overall advantages and core competitiveness of the company have not been affected. If, therefore, it affects the irrational decline of the company and the sector, it will usher in a very good bottom layout opportunity again. This is the most negative expected landing of boots in the near future. At the same time, the market has great differences on its impact. We suggest to avoid short-term uncertainty. On the one hand, we can increase positions in Ningde in batches on bargain hunting; On the other hand, it is possible to choose the layout of other high-quality assets affected. The performance in the first quarter exceeds the expected target, the long-term pattern is optimized in the future, and the long-term logic is smooth, such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , etc.
3) the epidemic situation may affect short-term sales, but the penetration rate may continue to increase. On May 1, new energy and new forces automobile enterprises successively announced the sales volume in April: the sales volume of Weilai was 5074 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 29% and a month on month increase of – 49%; The ideal sales volume is 4167 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 25% and a month on month increase of – 62%; The sales volume of Xiaopeng was 9002, with a year-on-year increase of + 75% and a month on month increase of – 42%; The zero running sales volume was 9087, with a year-on-year increase of + 228% and a month on month increase of – 10%. Affected by the epidemic, the production and delivery of automobile enterprises have been blocked, and the month on month sales have declined. However, it is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will still be improved and will not change to a good trend under the condition of the continuous downturn of the whole vehicle. We believe that the epidemic may curb short-term demand, but the subsequent easing of the epidemic will promote the recovery of demand and form a positive catalyst for the sector. On the whole, based on the high probability of “rush loading” of China’s subsidy clearing at the end of the year, we maintain the global sales forecast of 9.5 ~ 10 million in 2022. The demand of the industrial chain will continue to increase, with solid fundamentals, while the performance cashing ability of the leading enterprises is still strong and the value is prominent.
4) it is suggested to focus on the layout opportunities of lithium batteries with good expected margin. In terms of product price, lithium carbonate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolyte, cathode and other subdivided fields show a high stabilization or downward trend. The cost of lithium battery may decline marginally, superimposed with the price rise of new energy vehicle terminals, which is conducive to alleviating or eliminating the negative expectations of the market that the price or cost transmission is not smooth. Based on this, lithium power battery enterprises, which were previously suppressed by the rise of raw material costs and their performance and valuation, will usher in better marginal expectations.
5) industrial chain differentiation: the best is the best: profit distribution will be the key point of the industrial chain game in 2022, which is reflected in the game in the secondary market. Unit profit, market share and technological marginal change are the key factors to evaluate enterprises α The core element of growth attribute. In general, we continue to be optimistic about power batteries, diaphragms, high nickel ternary and some of them α High quality leading assets.
Subject recommendation
Under the general trend of global “double carbon” strong driving and supply resonance driving the continuous growth of demand, the outlook of the industrial chain will continue to rise. We maintain the “overweight” rating of the new energy vehicle industry. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the medium and long-term investment opportunities in the direction of energy storage and fuel cell for industrial extension.
Suggested layout main line: 1) core assets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , etc. 2) Elastic varieties: Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) etc. 3) Other suggestions are to focus on the leading points of the various sub industry segments: the 30 Huangshan Novel Co.Ltd(002014) \ , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , etc. 4) Key recommendations in the field of energy storage: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) and Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) etc. it is recommended to pay attention to Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) . Suggestions for attention in the field of fuel cells: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) -u, Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , etc.
Highlights this week: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) .
Market resumption
1) industry level: this week, the fuel cell index, new energy vehicle index, lithium battery index, charging pile index and energy storage index fell by 6%, 0.1%, 1%, 3% and 1% respectively. 2) Corporate level: corporate level: reference to the lithium battery index, and corporate level: reference to the lithium battery index. The company level: reference to the lithium battery index, the first five of this week’s rise is the ‘ Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (- 14%), Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) (- 10%), Shenzhen Yinghe Technology Co.Ltd(300457) (- 10%).
Industry dynamics
1) industrial chain price: lithium carbonate is quoted at 462000 yuan / ton this week, down 1.2% compared with last week, and lithium hydroxide is quoted at 469000 yuan / ton, down 0.5%; Nickel was quoted at 32400 US dollars / ton, down 4.2%, while cobalt was quoted at 552000 yuan / ton, down 1.4%,; In terms of cathode materials, ncm111 / 523 / 622 yuan precursor was quoted at 16.0/15.8163000 yuan / ton on Wednesday, down 2.4% / 3.4% / 2.1% respectively, and ncm622 yuan precursor was quoted at 391000 yuan / ton, down 1%; In terms of electrolyte, the quotation of lithium fluorophosphate on Saturday was 385000 yuan / ton, down 7.2%, and the quotation of electrolyte (lithium iron phosphate) was 93000 yuan / ton, the same as last week; Diaphragm, 9 μ Wet base film / 14 μ The price of dry base membrane is 1.48/0.95 yuan / m2 respectively, which remains stable; In terms of negative electrode materials, the prices of middle-end and high-end natural graphite were RMB 51000 / 61000 / ton respectively, the same as last week. 2) Key industry trends: a number of new energy vehicle enterprises released sales data in April. Affected by the epidemic, sales fell month on month.
Company dynamics
1) enterprises in the industrial chain intensively publish the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022; 2) Feifan automobile announced a price rise. Affected by the price of raw materials, the price rise tide of new energy vehicles is still continuing.
Risk tips
Policy fluctuation risk; Demand is lower than expected; The product price is lower than expected; The performance of the recommended company is less than expected; Systemic risk.
