Events
Near the Spring Festival, Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Foshan, Hefei, Anyang and other places have recently issued local spring festival notices, and introduced incentive policies such as cash red envelopes, scenic spot tickets, merchant promotion and so on. Local supermarkets and several online platforms have actively launched prefabricated food products related to new year's Eve dinner. For example, HEMA Xiansheng launched new year's Eve food reservation on December 28, 2021, earlier than in previous years. With the advent of the Spring Festival, the demand for prefabricated food is booming.
Commentary
Prefabricated dishes meet the demands of family delicacy and convenience, superimposed on the upcoming Spring Festival holiday and repeated epidemic situations in many places, and the demand is booming: from 2020, the quantity of prefabricated dishes in online channels will increase rapidly. In December 2021, we calculated that the Gmv of tmall prefabricated dishes will increase by about 45% at the same time, and the growth rate will increase by about 30pct month on month, which is the monthly growth peak of the year after the Spring Festival in February and the promotion of e-commerce in October; A week before the new year's Day (21W52), the fresh and fresh dishes category GMV of the fresh platform reached an increase of about 25% over the same period last month. The weekly category GMV reached the peak in the second half of the year, reflecting that the prefabricated dish has become a new choice for home eating during holidays and holidays. The GMV is Kwai Chung. According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, during the online New Year's festival in 2021, the sales of new year's Eve meal series commodities mainly monitored on the online catering platform increased by 96% compared with the same period of the Spring Festival of the previous year, of which semi-finished products, special new year's Eve dishes and new year's Eve meals increased by more than 380%, 110% and 70% respectively. In 2022, with repeated outbreaks in many places and the increase of local New Year celebrations, it is expected that the demand for prefabricated vegetables is also expected to be further released during the e-commerce annual goods Festival and the Spring Festival this year.
Prefabricated dishes help food enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency. In 2020, the scale exceeded 250 billion, accounting for more than 70% of Tob, with a penetration rate of about 13% in catering raw materials. They are optimistic about forming a positive interaction with the development of the catering industry: in the catering cost structure, rent, property and labor expenses rise the fastest. According to the survey data of the top 100 catering enterprises by China Restaurant Association, In 2019, the average proportion of the two expenses to the income was 21% and 12% respectively, up 3PCT and 4pct respectively compared with 2018, and the enterprise has a strong demand for cost reduction. Prefabricated dishes can effectively help restaurant enterprises reduce store processes, stabilize meal tastes, reduce food safety risks, and save labor costs and kitchen space. Referring to the historical experience of the growth of Japanese catering industry and frozen food tob business from 1980 to 2000, it is expected that the rise of foreign food rate and the development of prefabricated dishes in China will also strengthen each other. According to the data of NCB Food Dictionary, in 2020, the scale of China's Prefabricated vegetable market was 252.7 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 31.2% in five years. It is expected that the double-digit growth rate will still be maintained in the next five years, of which the demand at the catering end accounts for more than 70%. According to our calculation results, the penetration rate in catering raw materials in 2020 is 13.2%, which is expected to rise further in the future.
The pattern of prefabricated dishes is scattered, and catering enterprises are also involved, which can form synergy with their own catering business. Brand endorsement and store channels are its main advantages: enterprise survey data show that there are 72000 existing enterprises related to prefabricated dishes by the end of April 2021, and 13000 newly registered in 2020 alone, which is still scattered. Industry players mainly include professional prefabricated vegetable enterprises (such as Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) ), upstream agricultural enterprises (such as Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) ), quick-frozen food enterprises (such as Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603536) ), fresh retail private brands (such as HEMA workshop) and catering enterprises (such as Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Haidilao, Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) ). Catering enterprises are involved in the field of prefabricated dishes. On the one hand, they can reduce costs by building their own central kitchen and uniformly supplying semi-finished food materials for stores. On the other hand, they can expand the family side prefabricated dish Market with the help of their own catering brand endorsement and store channels to form business collaboration; After the outbreak, prefabricated dishes have also become a way for catering enterprises to supplement their source of income and improve their anti risk ability.
Investment advice
We give the "overweight" rating to the catering industry and are optimistic that the further application of prefabricated dishes in the catering end can effectively alleviate the cost pressure of catering enterprises. At the same time, we suggest paying attention to catering enterprises that extend to the field of prefabricated dishes and are expected to form business synergy, such as Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) .
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risk; Risk of intensified industry competition; Risk of demand falling short of expectation; Risk of data statistical deviation.
