Main points:
Pig prices rose 4.6% week on week, and pig breeding stocks can change time and space.
① pig prices rose by 4.6% on a weekly basis. On Sunday, the national pig price was 15.11 yuan / kg, up 4.6% on a weekly basis; The average wholesale price of pork in China was 19.79 yuan / kg, up 7.5% on a weekly basis; This week, the loss of self breeding pigs was 279.19 yuan / head, and the loss of outsourcing piglet breeding was 58.49 yuan / head.
② the proportion of low weight pigs kept low, and the price of piglets increased by 14.2% on a weekly basis. According to the data disclosed by Yongyi consulting (4.22-4.28): the proportion of domestic pigs in 90kg nationwide accounted for 5.95%, with a weekly increase of 0.16 percentage points, which is at the low level since the non plague; The market price of 15kg piglets in the scale farm this week was 578 yuan / head, up 14.2% on a weekly basis, up 41.7% in April, up 275% from 154 yuan / head at the bottom, and the price of 50kg binary sows was 1674 yuan / head, up 2.3% on a weekly basis, up 3.2% in April, up 35% from 1238 yuan / head at the bottom. ③ The short-term rise in pig prices disturbs market expectations, and pig breeding stocks can change time and space. The production capacity inflection point of China’s pig breeding industry appeared in June last year. The number of fertile sows in China decreased from 45.64 million at the end of June last year to 41.85 million at the end of March this year, a cumulative decrease of 8.3%. Since mid April, pig prices have rebounded rapidly, and the market began to worry about the clearing range of production capacity and the height of pig prices in a new cycle. In the short term, the rise of pig prices is related to seasonal factors and the industry generally optimistic about pig prices in the later stage. Farmers press the fence and the reappearance of secondary fattening. The superposition of covid-19 epidemic has caused poor transportation in Jilin, Liaoning and other places, resulting in passive fence pressing; From the perspective of the middle line, the slaughter of pigs will suppress the later pig price. We maintain our previous judgment that if there is no serious epidemic, the industry will experience the bottom grinding stage this year, and the trend rate of pig price in the second half of the year is probably lower than the market expectation. However, the longer than expected bottom grinding time of pig price will support the clearance of production capacity and the height of pig price in a new cycle, and pig breeding stocks can change time and space. We’re counting the market value of each pig’s head by the amount we’re expected to see in the coming out in 2022, and we’re counting the market value of each pig ”s head by the expected volume of the year in 2022, which will measure the market value of each pig’s head, with Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) .
White feather chicken products fell 0.3% week on week, and yellow feather chicken prices rose and fell month on month.
① white feather chicken products fell by 0.3% on a weekly basis. In the 16th week of 2022 (4.18-4.24), the price of parental chicken seedlings was 16.71 yuan / set, with a weekly increase of 0.9%; The sales volume of parent generation chicken seedlings was 861700 sets, up 28.7% month on month; On Friday, the price of white feather chicken products was 10500 yuan / ton, down 0.3% on a weekly basis. China Poultry Industry Association released the March report: in Q1, the national white feather ancestral generation renewal volume was 296900 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%, of which the ancestral generation renewal volume was 135500 sets in March, an increase of 54.5%; The sales volume of Q1 parent generation chicken seedlings was 135111 million sets, a year-on-year decrease of 8.03%. We maintain our previous judgment that the ancestral renewal of white feather broilers will be 1 million units in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and the price of white feather broilers is expected to stabilize and recover in 2022; In 2021, the national ancestral renewal volume increased by 24.3% year-on-year, and the chicken price may decline in 2023. ② Yellow feather chicken prices rose and fell week on week. Affected by covid-19 epidemic, increased production capacity and other factors, the loss degree of yellow feather broiler industry in 2020 is second only to that in 2013 impacted by the “human infection h7n9 epidemic”, and the stock in the ancestors began to decline from the middle of 2020. From 2020 to 21, the yellow feather chicken industry suffered an overall loss, and the industry continued to lose production capacity. The price of yellow feather chicken is expected to rise moderately in 2022. As of April 29, the average price of yellow feather broiler fast chicken was 5.87 yuan / kg, down 3.5% month on week and 3.3% year-on-year; The average price of medium speed chicken was 6.53 yuan / kg, up 0.5% on a weekly basis and down 7.9% on a year-on-year basis; The average price of native chicken was 7.86 yuan / kg, down 1.5% month on week and 1.6% year-on-year; Black bone chicken was 7.68 yuan / kg, down 5.5% month on week and up 1.1% year-on-year.
The feed boom is low, and the swine vaccine focuses on the progress of non plague vaccine.
In March 2022, the total output of industrial feed in China was 23.36 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%; In terms of varieties, the output of pig feed was 10.11 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%; The output of egg and poultry feed was 2.62 million tons, up 0.1% year-on-year; The feed output of meat and poultry, aquatic products and ruminants was 7.3 million tons, 1.85 million tons and 1.25 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, 42.9% and 17.2% respectively. In 2022q1, the total output of industrial feed in China was 67.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; In terms of varieties, the output of pig feed was 31.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; The output of egg and poultry feed was 5.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%; The feed output of meat and poultry, aquatic products and ruminants was 1995 million tons, 3.52 million tons and 3.76 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, 37.2% and 7.9% respectively. In March 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of batches of vaccines issued for pigs was from high to low: foot-and-mouth vaccine 37.5%, Porcine Pseudorabies Vaccine – 11.9%, porcine circadian vaccine – 21.5%, highly pathogenic porcine blue ear vaccine – 25.8%, porcine parvovirus vaccine – 37.9%, diarrhea vaccine – 40.9% and classical swine fever vaccine – 43.2%. In 2022q1, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of batches of vaccines issued for pigs was from high to low: foot-and-mouth vaccine 2.4%, highly pathogenic pig blue ear vaccine – 7.6%, porcine circadian vaccine – 28.8%, porcine parvovirus vaccine – 29.8%, diarrhea vaccine – 46.6%, classical swine fever vaccine – 47.6% and Porcine Pseudorabies Vaccine – 52.5%. The prosperity of the breeding cycle is low, so it is suggested to focus on the progress of non plague vaccine.
The commercialization of genetically modified organisms is gradually approaching, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price is expected to remain high.
① the commercialization of genetically modified crops is gradually approaching, and it is suggested to pay attention to the leader of seed industry Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) have obtained biosafety certificate for genetically modified maize traits Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) has high-quality maize germplasm resources, and the quality of germplasm resources is very important to the quality of transgenic varieties; Syngenta, as a global agricultural technology giant and China’s seed industry national team, ranks third in seed business and first in plant protection business in the world. It is one of the companies with the richest seed product portfolio in the world. We judge that Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Syngenta are expected to stand out in the commercialization process of China’s genetically modified seed industry, and the seed industry sector is expected to fluctuate upward. ② Corn prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The supply and demand report of USDA in April predicted that the global corn stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 25.5%, the lowest since 16 / 17, and the global corn stock consumption ratio (excluding China) in 2021 / 22 was 10.5%, the lowest since 00 / 01; According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in April, the national corn balance in 2021 / 22 was 4.83 million tons, a decrease of 3.24 million tons compared with 2020 / 21. In the year of 21 / 22, China’s corn supply and demand is in a tight balance. We expect that the corn price will remain relatively high in 2022. ③ Wheat prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The supply and demand report of USDA in April predicted that the global wheat stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 21.2%, the lowest level since 10 / 11; In 2021 / 22, the global corn stock consumption ratio (excluding China) was 10.5%, which was the lowest since 00 / 01. As the wheat exports of Russia and Ukraine account for about 30% of the world, the international price trend of wheat needs to continue to pay attention to the Russian Ukrainian war. ④ Soybean and soybean meal prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The USDA’s supply and demand report in April predicted that the global soybean stock consumption ratio was 24.8% and the global soybean meal stock consumption ratio was 5.4% in 2021 / 22, the lowest level since 11 / 12. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in April: the national soybean balance in 2021 / 22 is 170000 tons, which is the same as that in March, a decrease of 5.89 million tons compared with that in 20 / 21. We expect soybean and soybean meal prices to remain high in 2022.
Risk tips
Non plague out of control; Prices fell more than expected.
