Key points
In April, the delivery volume fell month on month, in line with expectations: 1) the delivery volume of Xiaopeng increased by 75% year on year / decreased by 42% month on month to 9002 vehicles; Among them, P7 increased by 24% year on year / decreased by 60% month on month to 3714 vehicles (accounting for about 41%), P5 decreased by 19% month on month to 3564 vehicles (accounting for about 40%), and G3 / g3i decreased by 20% / 6% month on month to 1724 vehicles (accounting for about 19%); 2) The ideal delivery volume decreased by 25% / 62% month on month to 4167 vehicles; 3) Weilai's delivery volume decreased by 29% / 49% to 5074 vehicles on a month on month basis; Among them, ES6 decreased by 41% / 63% to 1878 vehicles (accounting for about 37%), ec6 decreased by 48% / 59% to 1252 vehicles (accounting for about 25%), es8 decreased by 18% / 28% to 1251 vehicles (accounting for about 25%), and et7 increased by 325% to 693 vehicles (accounting for about 14%). We judged that fluctuations in the epidemic / supply chain and logistics led to a month on month decline in the delivery volume of new forces in April; Among them, ideal (Changzhou factory) and Weilai (Hefei OEM factory, which stopped production for 5 days from 4 / 9 to 4 / 14) are more obviously affected by the shutdown / shutdown of the supply chain in the Yangtze River Delta.
The resumption of work and production has been gradually promoted, and supply chain and logistics are still the core factors: the price of 4 / 1 ideal one has increased by 11800 yuan, and the price of 5 / 10 Weilai modified ES6 / ec6 / es8 has increased by 10000 yuan (vs. 1 / 11 and 3 / 21 Xiaopeng have increased by about 5000 yuan and 15000 yuan respectively); At present, the delivery cycles of new orders of Weilai, ideal and Xiaopeng are about 8 weeks, 6-8 weeks and 13-14 weeks respectively (we expect the delivery cycle of old orders to be extended). We judge that 1) on the basis of price adjustment, auto enterprises are still expected to maintain the performance of new orders and superimpose retained orders by synchronously expanding their rights and interests. It is expected that the core of short-term delivery is still supply chain and logistics. 2) On April 18, Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission released the first batch of 666 white lists for resumption of work and production, and on April 30, the second batch of 1188 white lists have also been released; We believe that on the basis of ensuring epidemic prevention and control, the policy orientation of orderly promoting the resumption of work and production / maintaining the stability of the industrial chain supply chain is very clear. 3) At present, the resumption rate of the first batch of white list has reached 80% + (SAIC / Tesla have realized the offline of whole vehicles in batches). In view of the long and complex automobile industry chain (involving secondary and tertiary small and medium-sized suppliers), the impact of personnel returning to work / logistics control and the May Day holiday, we expect the marginal improvement of delivery in May, but it is still under pressure. It is expected to climb to a reasonable level on the basis of comprehensive control of the epidemic in June.
Policy overweight to promote the demand for new energy vehicles: on April 25, the general office of the State Council issued opinions on further releasing the consumption potential and promoting the sustainable recovery of consumption, making it clear that no new automobile purchase restriction measures shall be added, and the relocation restriction policy of second-hand cars shall be cancelled. 4 / 29 Guangdong took the lead in responding to the guiding program by giving 8 Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) 00 yuan subsidies to individual consumers who trade in old cars for new ones and purchase new energy vehicles. We judge that 1) at present, there are different restrictions on the purchase of new energy vehicles in different regions (Beijing has only about 6 Shenzhen Sdg Information Co.Ltd(000070) 000 quota per year vs. there is no limit on the total amount of special licenses for new energy vehicles in Shanghai within the validity period of the policy); 2) All localities are still expected to implement the development policy of new energy vehicles according to local conditions through tax incentives and differentiated purchase, and continue to be optimistic about the climbing prospect of 2h22e new energy vehicle delivery.
Supply chain and capacity climbing are still the key in 2022: we are optimistic about the growth prospect of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle 2C demand release + steady increase in penetration. It is expected that supply chain / logistics, new vehicle launch planning and climbing rhythm, production expansion of existing factories and production of new factories will still be the leading factors for the climbing degree of 2022e new forces. In terms of traditional car enterprises, recommend Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , and pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) ; In terms of Tesla and new forces, recommend Tesla and pay attention to ideals for a long time.
Risk analysis: the supply chain and production capacity are not climbing as expected; The launch and climbing of models are not as expected; Industry demand is less than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; Cost control is less than expected; Repeated outbreaks; Market / financial risk
