The Politburo meeting again raised support for housing demand, and the “four restrictions” policy in many second tier cities was relaxed. On April 29, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting. For real estate: “we should effectively control key risks, hold the bottom line of no systemic risks, adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, support all localities to improve real estate policies from local conditions, support rigid and improved housing demand, optimize the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.” Recently, the central government frequently mentioned housing demand. Combined with the further decline of sales data in April affected by the epidemic, it is expected that the relaxation of follow-up real estate policies will be strengthened and the pace will be accelerated. This week, the real estate policy in many places was relaxed, and there was a trend of spreading from third and fourth tier cities to second tier cities Tianjin abolished price restrictions, Shenyang relaxed purchase restrictions, Luoyang fully relaxed loan restrictions, Zhongshan relaxed purchase restrictions and Nanjing relaxed purchase restrictions.
Market review: the rise and fall range ranks in the top and middle of various industries, 1.11 percentage points behind the market. This week, the cumulative change range of CITIC Real Estate Index was – 1.0%, 1.11 percentage points behind the market, ranking 11th among the 29 CITIC industry sectors. A total of 33 stocks rose this week, an increase of 24 over last week and 108 stocks fell. (unless otherwise specified, this week in the report refers to the week from April 23 to April 29).
Transaction of new houses: the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities this week was 2.607 million square meters, up 7.3% month on month and down 55.3% year on year. Among them, the transaction area of new houses in sample first tier cities was 441000 square meters, 10.1% month on month and – 60.4% year on year; The sample of second tier cities was 1.539 million m3, with a month on month ratio of 5.7% and a year-on-year ratio of – 52.4%; The third tier cities in the sample were 628000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of 9.2% and a year-on-year ratio of – 57.8%. From the year-on-year perspective of the transaction area of new houses in 17 weeks this year, the sample 30 cities totaled 46.611 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of – 42.7%; The first tier cities accounted for 9.253 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 38.3%; Second tier cities accounted for 26.569 million cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of – 36.4%; The third tier cities accounted for 10.79 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 56.1%.
Transaction of second-hand houses: the transaction area of second-hand houses in the 12 key cities we tracked this week totaled 1.374 million square meters, an increase of 18.0% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 35.4%. Among them, the transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities this week was 398000 square meters, a month on month increase of 8.3%; The sample of second tier cities is 748000 m3, with a month on month ratio of 22.4%; The third tier cities in the sample are 228000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of 22.9%. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses has been 16.479 million square meters, with a year-on-year change of – 37.1%; Among them, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities was 4.978 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 40.1%; The sample of second tier cities was 9.266 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 34.2%; The third tier cities in the sample were 2.235 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 34.2%.
Domestic credit bonds of key companies: the bond issuing interest rate of leading real estate enterprises decreased. According to the statistics of Shenwan industry real estate index, 20 real estate enterprise credit bonds were issued this week (4.25-5.1), up 4 month on month; The issuance scale totaled 21.643 billion yuan, an increase of 5.171 billion yuan month on month, the total repayment was 17.268 billion yuan, an increase of 4.505 billion yuan month on month, and the net financing amount was 8.875 billion yuan, an increase of 666 million yuan month on month. In terms of financing cost, the bond interest rates of Wenzhou hi tech (- 120bp), Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) (- 29BP), Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (- 30bp) and China Resources Land (- 26bp) are lower than those of comparable bonds of the same type and period previously issued by the company.
Investment suggestion: maintain the “overweight” rating of the real estate development sector. We believe that the core of the enterprise’s demand side financing policy is to relax the demand side financing policy and tighten the demand side financing policy. This year is a large-scale policy easing cycle, which is a beta market. Real estate enterprises with good credit qualification, sufficient liquidity, sufficient soil reserves and high quality are the main choice. It is suggested to pay attention to: A shares Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) ; H shares green city China, China Resources Land, China overseas development, Longhu group, China Jinmao, Xuhui holding group, China Overseas Hongyang. Property management: China Resources Vientiane, green city service, poly property, Yongsheng life service, country garden service, Jinke service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
Risk tip: the speed of policy introduction and implementation are lower than expected, and the fundamentals continue to decline, causing a chain reaction. The repeated impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
