Core view
The turnover of new houses and second-hand houses increased this week. This week, the number of new houses sold in 43 cities was 31000, up 4.1% month on month and down 55.3% year-on-year; The number of new houses sold in 17 large and medium-sized cities was 21000, an increase of 5.8% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 49.3%; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities changed by 32.6%, 10.3% and – 8.3% month on month respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 61.6%, – 46.1% and – 41.0% respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 15 cities was 15000, up 16.9% month on month and down 38.0% year-on-year; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 11 large and medium-sized cities was 14000, up 15.2% month on month and down 35.7% year-on-year; 1、 The number of second-hand housing transactions in second and third tier cities increased by 5.0%, 20.2% and 23.4% month on month respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 35.4%, – 38.5% and – 13.0% respectively.
The inventory of new houses has increased, and the decontamination cycle has decreased compared with last week. The inventory of new houses in 15 cities was 1.043 million, up 1.4% month on month, and the decontamination cycle was 17.8 months, down 0.9 months month on month; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 577000, with a month on month increase of 2.6% and a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. The decontamination cycle was 13.7 months and a month on month decrease of 0.5 months; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities was 281000 units, up 4.8% month on month. The de stocking cycle was 14.2 months, up 0.2 months month on month. The inventory of new houses in the second tier cities was 206000 units, up 0.6% month on month. The de stocking cycle was 14.6 months, down 1.2 months on month. The inventory of new houses in the third tier cities was 89000 units, up 0.6% month on month. The de stocking cycle was 10.8 months, down 1.3 months on month.
Compared with last week, the overall land market fell in price, and the land premium rate decreased. The number of all types of land traded in Baicheng was 280, down 3.8% month on month and 54.2% year-on-year; The planned construction area of the land traded was 18.01 million square meters, down 1.8% month on month and 45.9% year-on-year; The total land transaction price was 50.8 billion yuan, an increase of 109.1% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 34.5%; The average floor price of land traded was 2819 yuan / m2, up 112.9% month on month and 21.2% year-on-year; The land premium rate of Baicheng was 2.71%, down 14.2% month on month and 90.2% year-on-year.
The issuance scale of credit bonds of real estate enterprises increased month on month and year on year. The total issuance of credit bonds in the real estate industry this week was 23.343 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% (previous value: – 36.7%) and a month on month increase of 49.4%; The total repayment amount was 14.029 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.9% (previous value: – 25.2%) and a month on month increase of 28.6%; The net financing amount was 9.314 billion yuan. The total issuance of Chinese enterprise credit bonds was 23.343 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.8% (previous value: 27.8%) and a month on month increase of 49.4%; The total repayment amount was 7.067 billion yuan, an increase of 67.0% year-on-year (previous value: – 16.9%) and a decrease of 22.7% month on month; The net financing amount was 16.276 billion yuan. Private enterprises did not issue credit bonds for three consecutive weeks, and the total repayment this week was 6.962 billion yuan, an increase of 15.7% (previous value: – 50.8%) and 294.9% month on month; The net financing amount was -6.962 billion yuan.
Investment advice
We believe that the current real estate industry has entered a period of in-depth adjustment. From the sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises announced this week, the full caliber sales decline of the top 100 real estate enterprises in April further expanded to – 58.9%. The prosperity of the real estate market continues to be depressed, and the fundamentals of some cities are facing severe downward pressure. Recently, the pace of local real estate policy adjustment has significantly accelerated, and it has extended to purchase restriction, loan restriction, sales restriction, loose price restriction and other directions. For example, this week, Huangshi, Jiangmen and Zhuzhou issued house purchase subsidy policies, Langfang, Shangrao, Luoyang and Guiyang reduced the down payment ratio, Zhongshan, Huizhou and Shenyang cancelled some purchase restrictions, and Tianjin plans to stop the sales of limited price commercial houses. From the central level, the Politburo meeting set the tone of “loosening in stability”, and the real estate policy regulation path is clearer and clearer. We believe that the follow-up “implementing policies according to the city”, “implementing policies according to time” and “implementing policies according to the real estate” will further accelerate the implementation, realize the beta market, and repair market confidence and both ends of industry supply and demand can be expected.
We suggest paying attention to four main lines: 1) the leading real estate enterprises of central state-owned enterprises with nationwide layout have been boosted by valuation in the last stage, but will still enjoy the rising space brought by the beta Market: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Longhu group and China Resources Land; 2) Regional leading central state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises, but the quality of cash flow and financial report is good: China Construction Development International, Yuexiu real estate, Midea real estate, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; 3) After the policy becomes clearer, we can focus on the target of elastic reversal: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , country garden; 4) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination and accelerated concentration, as well as the recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, poly property, Zhonghai property and xinchengyue service.
Risk tips
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
