Market review: last week, SW auto sector closed at 477803 points, down 1.7%. The CSI 300 index closed at 401624 points, up 0.1%.
In terms of sub sectors, the passenger car sector rose by 1.6%, with the largest increase; The commercial bus sector fell 4.6%; The commercial truck sector fell 5.5%; The auto parts sector fell 3.1%; The auto service sector fell 7.0%, the biggest decline.
In terms of valuation, as of the closing on April 29, the PE (TTM) of the automobile sector was 24 times, of which the parts sector was 22 times, which was located below the historical valuation center.
Investment suggestion: with the improvement of the epidemic situation in Shanghai, the resumption of work and production of the automobile industry chain represented by SAIC and Tesla (Shanghai) has been smoothly promoted, and the resumption rate of the first batch of "white list" enterprises has exceeded 80%; At the same time, some high-quality companies showed strong performance toughness at the end of the disclosure of the annual report and the first quarterly report. Therefore, driven by the expected improvement of the sector and the overall market, the automobile sector began to perform strongly on Wednesday. We believe that at the current time, the resumption of work and production of Shanghai's industrial chain will promote the improvement of the supply side margin of the industry; In the environment of expanding domestic demand, the demand recovery needs to be slowly planned. In the future, the sentiment and fundamentals of the sector are expected to be gradually repaired, and continue to be optimistic about the independent brand passenger cars, new energy vehicles and intelligent vehicles.
Passenger cars: according to the sales data in March, the overall performance of cars is lower than expected, which is mainly affected by the epidemic in Shanghai, resulting in weak supply and demand. It is worth paying attention to the expansion of the advantages of independent brands and the continuous improvement of market share. With the subsequent epidemic situation in China effectively controlled, production is expected to resume one after another, and the logic of replenishment of inventory and delayed delivery of orders in the automotive industry throughout the year will continue. It is suggested to pay attention to Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ( Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ), Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ( Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ), Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ( Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ).
New energy vehicles: Although the sales volume in April is expected to be greatly affected by the epidemic, with the current epidemic situation improving and the increase of raw material prices slowing down, the sales volume is expected to rise rapidly in the future. The long-term trend of vehicle electrification is irreversible. We expect that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the middle of this year will be 5.1 million (+ 45% YoY), and the global market will continue to grow rapidly under the leadership of China, the United States and Europe. We are optimistic about: 1) leading enterprise of new energy vehicle and power battery Byd Company Limited(002594) ( Byd Company Limited(002594) ). 2) Companies like Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) 01689 ( Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ).
Smart cars: the market has steadily promoted the transformation of cars to intelligence. In the future, China's smart electric car market will present a diversified competition pattern. With the subsequent significant increase in the supply of smart cars in China, the industrial development shows an accelerated trend. We are optimistic about: 1) Huawei automotive industry chain opportunities, such as Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ( Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ( Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ); 2) The demand for cameras, millimeter wave radar, lidar and other sensors continues to increase, and the penetration rate of smart lights, smart cockpit and air suspension continues to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , computer group coverage), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) ( Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) ), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ( Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ), Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) ( Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) ).
Risk warning: policy fluctuation risk; Risk of chip shortage; Risk of rising raw material prices; The risk of resumption of work is less than expected; The risk that the electric transformation of vehicle enterprises is less than expected; The promotion of intelligent Internet connected vehicles is less than expected.
