Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , Huahong is super average: Although the 8 / 12 "vehicle / server analog chips, MCU, power, FPGA and power management chips are still in the long delivery stage of more than 40 weeks, the revenue momentum of global and Chinese wafer foundry industry is still strong, and the average revenue in 2021 and 2022 increased by 29% year-on-year, The year-on-year revenue growth of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) and Huahong significantly exceeded the year-on-year growth of the global average revenue in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022.
Chinese chip customer inventory is a variable: attributed to 1 Shortage of wafer foundry and price increase; 2. Customers dare not cancel orders easily; 3. Worried about being controlled by American technology in the future, Chinese chip design customers have greatly built up inventory. The average inventory months in the first quarter of 2022 reached 6.51 months, with a month on month increase of 22% and a year-on-year increase of 74%. If the foundry demand and price of wafers reverse next year, the inventory correction will reverse the revenue growth of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) and Huahong in 2023
Summary and sorting of annual and quarterly reports
1. In 2021, the global chip revenue increased by 26% year-on-year, the global wafer foundry increased by 29% year-on-year, the average year-on-year growth of China Semiconductor significantly exceeded 50%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company more than doubled year-on-year. The industries with the highest to lowest year-on-year revenue / weighted average growth are chip design (92% / 52%), equipment (85% / 63%), materials (57% / 45%), wafer foundry (56% / 47%), compound / power IDM (38% / 14%), And sealing and testing industry (31% / 22%).
2. In the first quarter of 2022, the average year-on-year growth of China's semiconductor revenue still exceeded 50%, and the year-on-year growth of net profit attributable to the parent company was still nearly times. However, except that the wafer foundry industry continued to accelerate due to the shortage and price rise of 5-10 points, the year-on-year growth of revenue in other industries slowed down by about 15 points. The industry with the highest year-on-year revenue / weighted average growth in China was chip design wafer foundry (75% / 70%), Chip design (72% / 22%), equipment (70% / 57%), materials (42% / 41%), packaging and testing industry (26% / 26%), and compound / power IDM (24% / 23%).
\u3000\u30003. Attributed to 1 Shortage of wafer foundry and price increase; 2. Customers dare not cancel orders easily; 3. Worried that it will be controlled by American technology in the future, Chinese chip design customers will greatly establish inventory. The average inventory months in the first quarter of 2022 reached 6.51 months, with a month on month increase of 22% and a year-on-year increase of 74%. If the foundry demand and price of wafers reverse next year, the inventory correction will reverse the revenue growth of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) and Huahong in 2023.
\u3000\u30004. Why is the revenue of packaging and testing and wafer foundry industry very different in the first quarter of 2022? 1. There is no price increase, no lack of production capacity and no queuing in the sealed test. There is no need for design customers to rush for goods and establish the finished product inventory of sealed test chips; 2. Huanxu Apple accounts for a large proportion of revenue and has great seasonal changes; 3. There was no price increase in the sealed test, and the price of wafer foundry increased by 5-10 points month on month in the first quarter.
\u3000\u30005. From the perspective of design and application, simulation, power, OLED drive and FPGA chips are relatively strong, while consumer electronic chips are significantly weaker. In terms of materials, polishing fluid, polishing pad, target and large silicon wafer have better growth.
Risk tips
Risk of Ukraine Russia War: not only the supply of semiconductor gas is affected, but also the demand for consumer electronic products in Russia, such as smart phones and computers, has declined significantly, affecting the global demand for semiconductors.
Epidemic control: the greater Shanghai area was previously controlled due to the epidemic, which had little impact on semiconductor manufacturers such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , Huahong, Huali, TSMC, Shanghai Songjiang 8 ", huanxu production, but logistics control and customs clearance caused a significant increase in semiconductor inventory.
Global interest rate hike: in particular, the US interest rate hike will cause the appreciation of the US dollar, significantly increase the cost of purchasing US semiconductor equipment and materials, and reduce interest in semiconductor sector investment.
Risk of oversupply: according to our prediction, the global 12 "mature process capacity will increase by 15-20% in 2023, which is significantly higher than the 10-15% demand growth. Therefore, we predict that the capacity utilization rate of 12" mature process will not be maintained at 100%, especially the 40 / 28nm process will have the risk of oversupply.
