Price: steel prices fell this week. This week, the price of 20mmhrb400 thread was 5020 yuan / ton, down from – 1.4% last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 4990 yuan / ton, down from – 3.1% last week. The price of raw materials fell this week, and the price of port iron ore fell this week compared with last week; Coke prices were flat compared with last week; Scrap prices were flat compared with last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar fell slightly this week. In terms of long-term process, we calculated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week was – 10 yuan / ton, – 79 yuan / ton and + 68 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of electric furnace steel fell this week compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week, the output of deformed steel bars declined on a weekly basis, the weekly basis of warehouses of the five major steel mills increased and the weekly basis of social warehouses decreased. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.93 million tons, with a decrease of 14200 tons, including a decrease of 34100 tons in the output of construction steel, an increase of 19900 tons in the output of sector, and a decrease of 61700 tons to 308300 tons in the output of rebar this week. In terms of different steelmaking methods, the output of long and short process deformed steel bars this week were 2.5997 million tons and 408600 tons respectively, and the cycle to cycle ratio was – 59600 tons and – 2100 tons respectively. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties decreased by 456100 tons to 15713700 tons, the total inventory of steel mills decreased by 6.882 million tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 38400 tons, of which the rebar social warehouse decreased by 299000 tons and the factory warehouse increased by 36300 tons. In terms of apparent consumption, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 3.271 million tons, with a decrease of 20300 tons.
Investment suggestion: at the meeting of the Political Bureau on April 29, it was clear that “we should strengthen macro policy adjustment and stabilize the economy”, boost the expectation of steel demand, and continue to reduce the output of crude steel during the year. The fundamentals of steel are expected to improve substantially. In the short term, steel consumption has fallen this week. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of deformed steel bar is 3.271 million tons, with a decrease of 20300 tons on a weekly basis. In terms of inventory, the steel social warehouse continued to decline this week, but the factory warehouse picked up 36300 tons. On the whole, the economic stimulus policy is expected to increase gradually, and continue to reduce the output of crude steel during the year. The improvement of steel fundamentals is expected to be strong, and the profit of steel may rise gradually. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel sector: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel sector: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Target of Superalloy: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; 4) Target of graphite electrode: Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) ; 5) Subject matter of pipes: Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) ; 6) High dividend targets: Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply.
