Plate market this week:
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.29%, the gem index rose 0.98%, the CSI 300 rose 0.07%, the CITIC basic chemical index fell 1.71%, and the Shenwan chemical index fell 3.77%.
Rise and fall of various sub sectors of chemical industry: this week, the top four sub sectors of chemical industry were electronic chemicals (0.93%), potassium fertilizer (0.77%), pesticides (0.39%) and food and feed additives (0.36%); The top five sub industries in the chemical sector were viscose (- 12.1%), rubber additives (- 10.51%), other plastic products (- 10.37%), polyester (- 9.1%), paint, ink and pigment (- 6.51%).
Main trends of the industry this week:
Butadiene: according to Longzhong chemical, on April 29, the price of butadiene was 9850 yuan / ton, an increase of 149.37% compared with the beginning of 2022. The main reasons are as follows: 1) since 2022, the price of crude oil has continued to fluctuate upward, which has supported the price in terms of cost; 2) With the increase of cost pressure, the operating rate of butadiene decreased and the supply tightened. According to China Chemical Information Weekly, in March, Nanjing Chengzhi, Sibang, Inner Mongolia Jiutai and other units continued to shut down, Yangzi Petrochemical maintained, Fushun Petrochemical and Sichuan Petrochemical stopped for a short time, and in April, Zhejiang petrochemical, Lanzhou Petrochemical and SINOCHEM Quanzhou maintained. Coupled with the centralized maintenance of outer disk units, the spot in Northeast Asia was once tight, Some of the Chinese goods are exported to South Korea. At present, about 63% of butadiene downstream butadiene butadiene butadiene rubber and 70% of styrene butadiene rubber are started. The production enterprises have no maintenance expectation, which has little impact on the demand. However, the ABS start-up has fallen below 80%. The epidemic in East China is severe, and the downstream automobile plants, modification plants and other end customers are affected, so that the demand for butadiene cannot be released. It is expected that the ABS start-up rate may gradually recover from May to June, driving the demand for butadiene.
Investment suggestions:
The supply and demand of phosphate fertilizer is tight, the cost supports the price upward, and the high price of phosphate fertilizer at home and abroad continues to be poor. China's prosperity is expected to remain upward. Focus on: Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) continue to promote capacity expansion. The British base took the lead in putting into operation, the construction of Jiangmen base was started, and the national strategic layout was gradually improved. The company continued to promote new product functional materials, create the second growth curve, and continue to consolidate its leading position in the industry, focusing on: Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) . Under the background of steady growth, China's soda ash demand is strong, the soda ash inventory of downstream glass plants is low, and the growth of photovoltaic glass is strong. China's leader in natural alkali process Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , plans to hold Yingen mining, and the long-term growth of production capacity is guaranteed, which is expected to reshape the supply and demand pattern. Focus on Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) Hershey, the Shandong Head Co.Ltd(002810) subsidiary, continues to release the production capacity of plant capsules, and its scale advantage is constantly strengthened. It is expected to win the first brand in Asia. At the same time, with the technical advantages of mitega, it will accelerate the commercialization of food grade cellulose ether in the field of artificial meat, which is expected to become the second growth point of the company. The key focus is: Shandong Head Co.Ltd(002810) . After years of competition and expansion, the leaders in various subdivided fields of China chemical industry have created a profit moat with cost advantages, and the global market share has been increasing. At present, the valuation is at a low level, focusing on: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) . Century old tires, trillion market, covid-19 epidemic accelerated, industry pattern reshuffle, China's tire leader continued to explore the market in multiple directions, market share continued to increase, and is expected to maintain rapid growth. Key attention: Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) . In the context of "double carbon", China continues to improve the national coal trading market and promote the development of new coal chemical industry at the cost side. China's leading coal to olefin enterprise Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , relying on the cost advantage to ensure profitability, focuses on: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) . In the peak season of spring ploughing, the demand for glyphosate is restored, the upstream phosphating industry is high, and the cost supports the price of glyphosate to return to the upward channel. Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) is the leader in China, with the cost and scale leading in the world, and the performance is expected to continue to grow. Focus on: Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) .
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Large fluctuations in oil prices; Downstream demand was lower than expected.
