Copper aluminum, cobalt lithium and precious metal sectors are recommended. This week (4.25-4.29), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.29%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.07%, the SW nonferrous index fell 0.47%, Comex gold fell 2.89% and silver fell 7.85%. The prices of LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin, the main industrial metals, changed by – 7.14%, – 3.53%, – 7.90%, – 4.57%, – 3.50% and – 3.85% month on month respectively; Metal inventory LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin changed by – 2.71%, 13.26%, – 7.65%, – 4.03%, 0.24% and 6.78% month on month respectively.
Industrial metals: the Politburo set the tone for steady growth, and the resumption of work and production will drive the marginal recovery of demand, and the price may rise at the bottom. Core view: the Politburo meeting proposed to strengthen macro-policy adjustment and stabilize growth. The most pessimistic period of demand has passed. In terms of copper, the U.S. economy in the first quarter was lower than expected, the pressure of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates may be alleviated, China’s resumption of work and production has been steadily promoted, while the supply interference of copper mines in Chile and Peru is still ongoing, China’s smelting growth is slow, supply and demand may gradually improve, and copper prices are strongly supported. In terms of aluminum, the Politburo meeting affirmed that one city and one policy should be adopted for real estate, and local purchase restrictions should be gradually relaxed. The demand for real estate may improve, and China’s supply will gradually pick up, while overseas supply is still tight. LME aluminum inventory will be reduced at a low level. With the recovery of transportation, export demand will rise, and aluminum prices may be strong. Focusing on the focus of the following focus: followingthe Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , China nonferrous mining industry.
Energy metals: the auction price of ore is high, the long-term support of lithium price is strong, the supply of cobalt increases, and the price may be under pressure. Core view: the epidemic has impacted demand, but car companies are resuming production one after another, and the marginal impact of the epidemic has weakened. In terms of lithium, the supply side: the increment of Salt Lake project continues, and the demand side. Since April, the epidemic has impacted the industrial chain and suppressed the downstream demand, while the overseas demand for lithium hydroxide is still strong. The auction price of lithium concentrate is 5650 US dollars / ton, which is equivalent to the tax cost of lithium salt of about 400000 yuan / ton, an increase of 140% over the previous time. The auction products were delivered in June, and the market is still optimistic about the long-term demand, with strong support for lithium price. In terms of cobalt, the import of intermediate products is more, and the supply of cobalt increases. However, the epidemic affects the downstream demand, and the performance of cobalt price is relatively weak. In terms of nickel, the supply of high nickel matte output has not been released significantly, the supply of nickel sulfate continues to be tight, and the low inventory of electrolytic nickel supports the nickel price. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , etc.
Precious metals: the economic growth of the United States in the first quarter was lower than expected, the economy may enter stagflation, and the gold price is expected to be strong. Core view: the annualized GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was – 1.4%, which was lower than the market expectation. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued, inflation was still difficult to alleviate, and the gold price was expected to be strong. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to high energy commodity prices, and the European and American sanctions have worsened the supply chain. The US economy stalled in the first quarter, and the Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma. The rhythm of interest rate hike may be affected, the characteristics of economic stagflation become more and more obvious, and gold may run stronger. Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , gold mining industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: demand is less than expected, supply is released more than expected, policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk.
