In 2021, automobile production and sales will end three consecutive declines, with prominent development highlights. In 2022, China's automobile sales volume was 26.275 million, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, ending the decline for three consecutive years since 2018. In the case of supply shortage, China's automobile industry shows the characteristics of steady growth and prominent highlights in 2021. New energy vehicles have become the biggest highlight of the automobile industry in 2021. The annual sales volume in 2021 exceeded 3.5 million units, and the quality brand and supporting environment of new energy vehicles have been further optimized; The share of independent brands has increased significantly, and the market share will reach 44% in 2021; The overseas market has become another important increment of China's automobile industry. In 2021, the export sales exceeded 2 million units, realizing the breakthrough of hovering around 1 million units for many years.
It is estimated that in 2022, the sales volume of vehicles will reach 28 million units, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 5.1 million units, and the share of independent brands will reach 60% ~ 70% in the long run. In 2022, the chip supply problem will be alleviated. With the addition of new energy vehicles and export increment, we predict that China's automobile sales will reach 28 million units in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The new energy vehicle landscape continues, and the sales volume is expected to reach 5.1 million units in 2022. In the long run, the annual sales volume of Chinese cars is expected to reach 40 million units, and the share of independent brands is expected to reach 60% ~ 70%.
In 2022, there will be abundant reserves of independent new products, and foreign brands will add weight to the Chinese market. In 2022, the independent car enterprises will continue to make efforts, and the new forces in the head will enter a rapid growth period. The independent car enterprises in the head will reserve a variety of new models. In addition, foreign brands will continue to overweight the Chinese market. BMW recently released its China strategy and will adhere to the principle of "China first". But overall, we believe that independent brands have outstanding advantages in the era of smart new energy, and are expected to seize the valuable window period to further enlarge their advantages.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, the auto industry will usher in a recovery. The sales targets of several leading auto enterprises show strong growth confidence. For auto enterprises with strong benefits, new product cycle and fast landing speed of intelligent products, it is strongly recommended to Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (2333. HK), Geely Automobile (0175. HK) and Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) . At the same time, it is recommended to pay attention to the three new forces of car making: Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal; Recommend suppliers Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) benefiting from the increasing penetration of electric smart vehicles; In terms of battery materials, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) are strongly recommended; Software defines automobile acceleration, automobile computing power tends to be centralized, and the demand for computing power increases. The demand for software and hardware services such as domain controller and intelligent vehicle operating system will grow rapidly. It is strongly recommended to Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) and pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) .
Risk tips: 1) the shortage of chips may cause the recovery of the automotive industry to be less than expected; 2) Continuous high investment affects the company's operation and drags down the company's performance; 3) Independent brands are less than expected in intelligent technology and management transformation; 4) The continuous rise of raw material prices weakens the profits of vehicle and parts enterprises
