Lithium salt prices began to stabilize. Near the May Day holiday, the market transaction is light, and the main transaction is still long orders. Large factories have no spare capacity to sell zero orders. Supply: according to the statistics of Baichuan, the output of lithium carbonate this week was 4404 tons, an increase of 44 tons month on month. Demand: downstream inquiry is still not positive.
Pls auction price can be used as a guide, and the price of lithium concentrate is expected to continue to rise. Within the week, the auction price of PLS lithium concentrate was 5650 $/ T (FOB, 5.5% SC), and the auction quantity was 5000 tons. Pls conducted three auctions in 2021, and each auction gave guidance to the subsequent prices. From the previous three auctions and the price trend of China’s lithium concentrate, the price of China’s lithium concentrate will reach the auction price in about three months. Therefore, we expect that there is still room for the price of lithium concentrate in China to rise.
Lithium salt profits have been greatly compressed, and China’s lithium salt lake, lithium mica and Sichuan lithium mining enterprises have entered the golden development stage. According to the auction price of 5650 $/ T (sc5.5), the profit of lithium salt is about 50000 yuan. The profit of lithium concentrate in Australian mines is about 210000 yuan, and the profit distribution between lithium salt and lithium concentrate is about 2:8. According to our calculation, the profit of lithium salt: lithium concentrate was generally 6:4. The price of lithium concentrate increased significantly this time, and the profit of lithium salt was greatly compressed. The continuous shortage of lithium resources in the upstream reflects the continuous shortage of lithium resources in the downstream. China’s lithium resources are heavily dependent on overseas imports from Australia and South America, and Chinese lithium enterprises are urgently needed to play the role of sea god needle. Therefore, we believe that China’s lithium salt lake, lithium mica and Sichuan lithium mining enterprises will enter a golden period of development in the future.
Affected by the epidemic, the delivery volume of new forces was relatively low in April. Within the week, ideal Weilai and others announced the delivery volume in April: the delivery volume of Weilai was 5074 vehicles in April and 11000 vehicles in March; Xiaopeng automobile delivered 9002 vehicles in April and 15000 vehicles in March; Nezha automobile delivered 8813 units in April and 12000 units in March. The delivery of new forces is relatively sluggish, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic and severe challenges in production, transportation and other links.
Shanghai’s resumption rate exceeds 80%, and downstream consumption is expected to recover. As of April 30, the resumption rate of the first batch of “white list” enterprises in Shanghai exceeded 80%. On the basis of improving the preliminary work, the second batch of 1188 “white list” enterprises were launched a few days ago. With the improvement of the epidemic situation in Shanghai and the promotion of resumption of production and work, downstream consumption is expected to usher in a recovery.
Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) .
Risk tip: the downstream demand is less than expected, the lithium price fluctuates sharply, and the macro policy changes.
