It coincides with the two major technological changes of information and energy, leading the electronics industry in the new decade. Referring to the development history of smart phones, when the penetration rate of terminal devices is 10% ~ 50%, the industry has entered a “sweet period” of rapid development. We believe that at present, the two major technological changes of information and energy are at an inflection point, which will lead the development of the electronic industry in the next decade.
1) information technology change: from the perspective of penetration, the terminal demand driven by information technology change has entered the growth inflection point, and cars and VR / Ar are emerging as the rudiments of new human-computer interaction platforms. a) Automobile: Automobile electrification has crossed the inflection point of 10% penetration and entered the stage of accelerated development. Intellectualization has ushered in a new era driven by the leap from L2 to L3 / L4. b) VR / AR: the penetration rate of VR in game consoles has reached 16%, and the growth certainty of the industrial chain is high; The penetration rate of AR replacement mobile phone is only 0.07%, which has more imagination space for a long time.
2) energy technology transformation: in the era of parity, energy technology transformation is accelerated, and photovoltaic power generation and energy storage help switch between old and new energy sources. a) Photovoltaic: in 2020, the benchmark on grid price of photovoltaic power generation in class I areas will be reduced to 0.35 yuan / kWh, which is lower than that of thermal power. There is a foundation for new energy power generation to replace traditional energy power generation, and the industry has entered the stage of accelerated growth. b) Energy storage: the development of energy storage is the key to the effective utilization of new energy power generation. The industry has high growth and high certainty. The energy storage mode is changing from pumped storage to electrochemical energy storage.
The mainland industrial chain is ready to fully meet the wave of science and technology. 1) Over the past decade, the transfer of Apple’s supply chain to the mainland + the rise of the mainland terminal mobile phone brand has provided fertile ground for the growth of a number of mainland precision manufacturing, PCB, optical, passive components and other enterprises, which will quickly switch from consumer electronics to a new generation of technology; 2) Mainland semiconductor has accumulated preliminary technology in all links and has been verified in the shortage tide in 2021. In the future, under the underlying logic of “domestic substitution + policy assistance”, the mainland semiconductor industry will cooperate with the new generation of technological revolution in the next decade to cut in from the middle and low end to the high end in order.
The downstream is uncertain, but under the trend of “hardware embedding”, the upstream parts have high elasticity and certainty. We believe that terminal manufacturers have both the uncertainty of competition pattern and the uncertainty of technology path, but under the trend of “hardware embedding” of terminal manufacturers, upstream parts have higher performance certainty and flexibility. Therefore, starting from the emerging terminal requirements from the bottom up, we explore the deterministic investment opportunities brought by core incremental components.
In 2022, firmly grasp the two main lines of “vehicle content” and “domestic substitution”, and it is suggested to pay attention to:
IGBT & SiC (vehicle electrification + photovoltaic and energy storage drive): Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) (vehicle IGBT leader), Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) (capacity is king), Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) (strong comprehensive capacity), Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) (photovoltaic potential company), Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) (photovoltaic and vehicle explosion), Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) (SiC integrated layout), tianyuexian (SiC substrate), Phenix Optical Company Limited(600071) (SiC extension).
Intelligent driving: 1. Camera (with high growth certainty and excellent competition pattern): Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) (China’s leader in vehicle camera chip), Shunyu optics (global leader in vehicle lens & module), Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) (vehicle lens & module potential company), China Wafer Level Csp Co.Ltd(603005) (vehicle CIS chip packaging);
2. Lidar (track with maximum elasticity of sensing layer): Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) (core components), torch technology (components + transmitting module), Optowide Technologies Co.Ltd(688195) (components), Zhejiang Lante Optics Co.Ltd(688127) (components), Castech Inc(002222) (components), Vanjee Technology Co.Ltd(300552) (scarce target of the whole machine), Changguang Huaxin (to be listed, layout of transmitting end chips), etc.
Intelligent cockpit: Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) (touch & display module), Shenzhen Longli Technology Co.Ltd(300752) (backlight display module), Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co.Ltd(002273) (HUD), etc.
MCU (new energy vehicle and domestic alternative drive): Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) (the progress of vehicle regulations is leading in the mainland), Chipsea Technologies (Shenzhen) Corp.Ltd(688595) (from the intelligent cockpit domain), Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) (from the body domain), etc.
PCB (profit repair + new energy vehicle drive): Olympic Circuit Technology Co.Ltd(603920) (the highest proportion of on-board PCB), Wus Printed Circuit (Kunshan) Co.Ltd(002463) (Tesla primary supplier), Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic Co.Ltd(603228) (China FPC supplier of power lithium battery leader), Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing Co.Ltd(002384) (Tesla FPC supplier), etc.
Connectors (driven by new energy vehicles): Electric Connector Technology Co.Ltd(300679) (the most competitive in China), Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) (full product layout), etc.
VR / AR: Goertek Inc(002241) (global leader in VR head display assembly), Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) (actively layout VR / AR Business), Shenzhen Longli Technology Co.Ltd(300752) (VR display backlight module), etc.
Batteries and passive components (new opportunities brought by domestic substitution and new energy): Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) (energy storage battery), Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) (China’s leading film capacitor), Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) (China’s second film capacitor); Chaozhou Three-Circle(Group) Co.Ltd(300408) (China’s MLCC leader), Shenzhen Sunlord Electronics Co.Ltd(002138) (rapid discharge of on-board inductance).
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Technological development is less than expected; The epidemic situation affects downstream demand; The information used in the research report is not updated in time; Deviation risk of industry scale measurement.
