In 2021, the recovery process of retail revenue was faster than that of profit, and 1q2022 slowed down due to the impact of the epidemic
The retail revenue of Listed Companies in 2024 was 505.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.24 billion yuan. The gross profit was 134140 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.34%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.04%. The net profit deducted from non parent company was 8.134 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.09%. The gross profit margin of the retail industry in 2021 was 26.65%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points compared with 2020, and the period expense rate was 22.01%, an increase of 1.10 percentage points compared with 2020.
Judging from the situation in a single quarter, 1q2022, the main 52 listed companies in the retail industry, achieved an operating revenue of 141211 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.70%. The gross profit was 35.843 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.22%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.140 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.19%. The net profit deducted from non parent company was 5.270 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.94%. The gross profit margin of 1q2022 in the retail industry was 25.38%, 3.87 percentage points lower than 4q2021, and the period expense rate was 19.33%, 5.15 percentage points lower than 4q2021.
1q2022 epidemic repeatedly affected the overall recovery process, and the optional products were greatly impacted
Among the major sub sectors of 1q2022 retail industry, only supermarkets and professional chain businesses have achieved positive year-on-year growth in parent net profit. 1) the average revenue growth rate of gold jewelry industry is 11.71% (overall method, the same below), and the growth rate of parent net profit is – 32.99%. 2) The revenue growth rate of the department store industry was – 5.35%, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was – 21.56%. 3) The revenue growth rate of the supermarket industry was 0.36%, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent was 94.91%. 4) The average growth rate of income in professional markets and chain industries was 32.00%, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent companies was 25.99%.
Investment strategy: focus on department store stocks with undervalued value and high dividend yield and optional consumption with epidemic repair logic
On the whole, 1q2022 has seen repeated outbreaks in some areas, which has a great impact on the optional products that rely on offline channels, and the net profit attributable to the parent of department stores and gold jewelry has declined to a certain extent year-on-year. With the gradual recovery of the epidemic and the recovery of off-line passenger flow, there may be a certain rebound opportunity for optional consumer goods. Compared with mandatory products, optional products are more flexible, including department stores, gold jewelry and Baijiu dealers. Gold jewelry and professional chain businesses have recovered to the pre epidemic level from the perspective of income. It is expected to further improve their profitability and return the net profit to the parent to the pre epidemic level.
From the perspective of valuation, the Pb of some department stores with high proportion of self owned properties is less than twice, which is in a historically low position. From the perspective of long-term value investment, it has entered the investable range. At the same time, some department stores have high dividend rate, high safety margin and certain investment value. It is suggested to pay attention to: Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , JD group.
Risk analysis: the growth rate of residents’ consumption demand did not meet expectations, the post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some subdivided industries, and the impact of the general trend of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
