Key investment points:
Market review: from April 25 to April 29, 2022, CITIC consumer service industry index rose by 0.19% as a whole, ranking fifth among all CITIC primary industry indexes, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by about 0.11 percentage points in the same period. Among the segments of CITIC’s consumer service industry, the comprehensive services, hotel catering, tourism and leisure and education sectors rose or fell by – 3.32%, 0.44%, 0.17% and 1.12% respectively, outperforming the CSI 300 index except the comprehensive services sector. Eight listed companies in the industry achieved positive returns, with the top five rising respectively Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , China United Travel Co.Ltd(600358) , up 12.84%, 6.40%, 6.25%, 3.85% and 3.36% respectively. There are 46 listed companies that have achieved negative returns, among which the top five listed companies are Western Regions Tourism Development Co.Ltd(300859) , Tempus Global Business Service Group Holding Ltd(300178) , Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) , Sansheng Intellectual Education Technology Co.Ltd(300282) , Kaiyuan Education Technology Group Co.Ltd(300338) , with increases and decreases of – 17.87%, – 18.37%, – 19.95%, – 21.10% and – 22.55% respectively. As of April 29, 2022, the overall PE (TTM, overall method) of CITIC consumer service industry was about 43.95 times, which was 46.57 times lower than the average valuation of the industry since 2016. The PE (TTM) of tourism and leisure, hotel catering, education and comprehensive service sectors are 41.76 times, 104.38 times, 30.62 times and 26.91 times respectively.
The daily dose of vid vaccine in China has reached 219.89-19.89 million, and the daily dose of vid vaccine in China has reached 19.94-19.89 million, with an average of 21.94 million doses per month. The average covid-19 vaccination dose decreased gradually. The total amount of covid-19 vaccination per 100 people in the world reached 147.18 doses, of which the complete vaccination rate of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people reached 591.6%, and the daily covid-19 vaccination volume reached 100879 million doses.
Key industry news: (1) the general office of the State Council issued opinions on further releasing consumption potential and promoting sustainable recovery of consumption. The opinions put forward that we should quickly promote the cultivation and construction of international consumption center cities. Improve the policy of duty-free shops in the city, and plan to build a number of duty-free shops in the city with Chinese characteristics. (2) Ctrip predicts that during the May Day holiday, the proportion of rural travel orders will increase by 10% compared with that during the Qingming Festival; The proportion of local + surrounding camping products registered on the platform is 85%, and the local proportion is more than 50%. (3) The Politburo meeting proposed to implement relief and assistance policies for enterprises damaged by the epidemic.
Industry view: maintain a prudent recommendation rating for the industry. During the May Day holiday, the proportion of applying for local + surrounding camping products on Ctrip platform reached 85%, and the local proportion reached more than 50%; The Ministry of transport estimates that the national passenger traffic volume has decreased by about 62% year-on-year, and the passenger traffic volume of civil aviation has decreased by 77% year-on-year. The golden week is under pressure from the impact of the scattered epidemic. However, the State Council proposed to further release the consumption potential and promote the sustained recovery of consumption. The Politburo meeting proposed to implement the rescue and assistance policy for the enterprises damaged by the epidemic. The inflection point of this round of epidemic was basically determined. It is suggested to pay attention to the hotel leaders Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ( Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ), Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ( Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ), etc., which benefit from the implementation of the rescue and assistance policy Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) ( Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) ), Zhang Jia Jie Tourism Group Co.Ltd(000430) ( Zhang Jia Jie Tourism Group Co.Ltd(000430) ), etc, Recommend China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ( China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ) which is expected to benefit from the tax exemption policy in the city.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Changes in industrial policies; The promotion of relevant policies is less than expected; Repeated outbreaks; The development of vaccines and drugs is less than expected.
