In March, the computer sector decreased by 17.0%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index / gem index by 10.71/4.23 percentage points respectively, ranking 29 / 29 in the primary industry. The industry valuation reached the bottom of the 10-year period, and the proportion of institutional positions was at a historical low, still at a low allocation. We are optimistic about the possibility of valuation repair and position improvement. The medium and long-term logic of the allocation proportion is more prominent. It is recommended to add allocation.
The industry plummeted to the bottom, and some blue chip stocks performed well. Software fell significantly (software development – 22.4%, service – 23.0%), and computer equipment fell 12.3%. The absolute number of valuation of software companies is high, which reflects the indiscriminate decline, and also reflects the sharp decline and began to hit the bottom New Trend International Logis-Tech Co.Ltd(300532) q1 performance and orders on hand doubled, with an increase of 26.6% in the month, which was the leading target among only three rising stocks. Financial it (digital currency) sector led the decline, such as Northking Information Technology Co.Ltd(002987) (- 43.7%), Global Infotech Co.Ltd(300465) (- 45.6%), Client Service International Inc(300663) (- 42.4%). The performance of some stocks exploded, such as Beijing Baolande Software Corporation(688058) (- 44.8%). On the whole, under the pressure of the market, the performance of individual stocks is not sensitive to performance.
Institutional positions are still in low allocation, and the head aggregation effect continues. In 2022q1, the position proportion of active partial equity funds in the computer industry was 2.84%, down 0.28pct month on month and 0.12pct year-on-year. Since 2016, the proportion of institutions’ positions in the computer industry has shown a downward trend as a whole, and their positions in 2022q1 have been close to a historical low. In terms of over allocation proportion, the standard allocation proportion of the computer industry in 2022q1 is 4.45%, and the over allocation proportion is – 1.61%, which is basically the same month on month. The over allocation situation in 21 years is lower than that in 2020. 2022q1 institutional positions changed slightly month on month, computer head manufacturers are still favored, and leading stocks such as cloud computing, AI and network security still dominate. Ranked by market value, Ninestar Corporation(002180) , Glodon Company Limited(002410) , Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) and Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) are the top positions of institutions. According to the change of institutional positions, Ninestar Corporation(002180) , Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) are still significantly increased by institutions, while Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , Autel Intelligent Technology Corp.Ltd(688208) and Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) are significantly reduced by institutions.
The industry valuation has reached the extreme bottom, and the medium and long-term direction is clear. By the end of April, the PE of the computer industry was 35 times, which has fallen to the bottom of the 10-year period. At present, the performance and theme driven are lack of funds to follow, reflecting the depressed market sentiment and the limited choice of individual stocks and tracks. However, many targets are under the safety cushion, and the upward winning rate is obvious. From the perspective of medium and long-term income, we can increase participation.
Investment suggestions: recommend Venustech Group Inc(002439) , Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) .
Risk warning: the policy is not as expected; The epidemic repeatedly exceeded expectations.
