Poor first expectation: the epidemic disrupted the growth rhythm, the growth rate remained resilient under the high base of 21q4, and 22q1 exceeded expectations. Sort out the rhythm of revenue changes in the network security industry since the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020. Some bidding and tendering in 2020h1 are deferred to Q3. Since most network security orders are converted into revenue within about half a year, 20q4 and 21q1 are the peak of revenue recognition. The revenue growth rate of the leading company 20q4 in a single quarter exceeds 50%, driving the revenue growth of more than 20% in the whole year of 20 years. 21q1 also benefits from the industry boom, delayed confirmation of some orders and low base effect, Such as Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) , Westone Information Industry Inc(002268) and other leading enterprises, the revenue growth rate in a single quarter exceeded 100%. Mapped to the stock price level, the market value peak of network security companies mostly appeared in 21q1 and fluctuated to July 2021. Catalyzed by the three-year action plan for high-quality development of network security industry (20212023), data security governance events of Internet taxi platform, the market attention increased rapidly. Before the disclosure of the 21-year interim report, the market had the expectation that the annual revenue growth rate would fall quarter on quarter. The distribution network security industry was more obvious, and the sector has continued to decline so far. With the leading enterprise still maintaining rapid growth above the high base of 21q4, the inflection point of 22q1 growth rate has appeared, and the pressure of prosperity concern is expected to be relieved.
The revenue growth rate of leading enterprises of network security has improved month on month, the valuations are at historical lows, and the allocation value has increased significantly. For the full year of 2021 in the 2021 year of 2021 for the full year of 2021 in the year of 2021 for the full year of the year of the year in 2021 for the full year of the full year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the full year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year in 2021 for the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the full year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of ‘ Geovis Technology Co.Ltd(688568) 85 Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) 02%, of which the revenue growth of Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) , Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) , Westone Information Industry Inc(002268) , Nsfocus Technologies Group Co.Ltd(300369) , Beijing Infosec Technologies Co.Ltd(688201) 21q4 in a single quarter was 36.81%, 44.05%, – 10.76%, 29.03% and 22.26%, Correspondingly, the growth rate of 22q1 in a single quarter was 44.52%, 26.90%, 123.07%, 34.64% and 31.53%. Disturbed by the epidemic situation, the pace of growth of leading enterprises gradually recovered, and the growth rate of Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) as of March 29, 2022, the new orders exceeded 900 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 65%. The amount of new orders in Topsec Technologies Group Inc(002212) 21 years increased by 48.09% year-on-year. Combined with the data of bidding and procurement network, the sector orders still maintained a high boom. As of April 29, Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) , Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) 2022 wind unanimously expected PS to be 4.17 and 3.81, Topsec Technologies Group Inc(002212) , Venustech Group Inc(002439) , Nsfocus Technologies Group Co.Ltd(300369) , Beijing Infosec Technologies Co.Ltd(688201) 2022 wind unanimously expected PE to be 14.01, 14.62, 16.57 and 22.99 Both are at historical valuation lows, with prominent allocation value.
The second expectation is poor: the construction of network security for the government and important industries is still in the stage of reaching the standard, and the impact of the epidemic should not be overly pessimistic. According to the data of the white paper on China’s network security industry released by the China Academy of communications and communications in January 2022, the downstream customers of the network security industry are mainly the government, telecommunications and financial industries. The government and public enterprises and institutions are still the largest downstream customers of China’s network security industry, accounting for 29% of the market revenue; Followed by the telecommunications industry, with market revenue accounting for 21%; In the third place is the financial industry, with market revenue accounting for 14%, accounting for 64% of the total market scale. In 2021 alone, a series of policies and regulations such as the data security law of the people’s Republic of China, the personal information protection law of the people’s Republic of China, the regulations on the security protection of key information infrastructure, and the measures for network security review were successively issued and implemented. The deepening of policies is expected to promote the rigid demand of relevant units, even if a relatively complete telecommunications industry is built, The Ministry of industry and information technology still clearly proposes that the proportion of network security investment in key industries such as telecommunications in information technology investment shall not be less than 10%, and Shanghai is the leader in information technology construction. It also proposes to guide the network security investment of public departments and key enterprises and institutions to account for no less than 10% of the total investment in information technology. Important industries and governments are still in the stage of reaching the construction standard, and the market space for customer network security construction of commercial enterprises is broad, We should not worry too much about the industry demand under the epidemic.
The third expectation is poor: the proportion of informatization and network security expenditure is difficult to reverse, and the growth of the sector is still higher than that of the computer industry as a whole α。 1) The new infrastructure of digital economy is expected to continue to exceed expectations. On April 15, the national development and Reform Commission held a press conference. In terms of new IT infrastructure, among the 10 national data center clusters in China this year, 25 new projects have been started, and the scale of data centers has reached 540000 standard racks, exceeding 10% of the existing stock scale; The investment in all sectors exceeded 190 billion yuan, of which the investment in the western region increased six times over the same period last year; 2) The trend of informatization is difficult to reverse. On the one hand, the non internet industry has developed rapidly and the purchase of operators’ servers may increase significantly. According to the disclosure of caizhao.com, China Mobile’s centralized procurement of PC servers reached 204700 units from 2021 to 2022, a year-on-year increase of about 48% China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) 20212022: the centralized procurement of servers reached 200000 units, with a year-on-year increase of about 255%. On the other hand, for Internet manufacturers, Alibaba cloud’s revenue growth fluctuated slightly due to accidental factors, but q4apex’s year-on-year growth rate has significantly increased to 128%; 3) The growth of the network security sector is still higher than that of the computer industry as a whole α。 According to IDC data, it is expected that by 2025, China’s network security related expenditure is expected to rise from US $10.26 billion in 2021 to US $21.46 billion, with an annual compound growth rate of about 20.5%, ranking first in the world. In 2020, the proportion of global network security investment in informatization was 5.43%, 6.58% in the United States and 2.93% in China. The policy and informatization deepening endogenous drive the proportion of network security to continue to increase. In the three-year action plan for high-quality development of network security industry (20212023) (Exposure Draft), the proportion of network security investment in key industries such as telecommunications is expected to reach 10%, and the security application in key industries is expected to speed up in an all-round way, The level of network security protection of infrastructure in key industries has been continuously improved. In addition, traditional industries such as industrial enterprises, manufacturing, education and transportation will accelerate the digital transformation. From 2020 to 2025, the application penetration rate of industrial Internet platform will increase from 14.7% to 45%. Industrial Internet, Internet of things and data security will be high growth areas in the future. Under the background of the continuous growth of the overall scale of network security industry, some opportunities are expected to accelerate.
Related objects: Westone Information Industry Inc(002268) , Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) , Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) , Topsec Technologies Group Inc(002212) , Venustech Group Inc(002439) , Nsfocus Technologies Group Co.Ltd(300369) , Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) , etc.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies the risk; The policy strength is less than the expected risk; Macroeconomic risks.
