Market review: affected by the epidemic in China, the auto sector continued to adjust this week. This week (4.25-4.29), the overall SW automobile sector was – 1.71%, ranking 15 / 31. SW passenger car segment + 1.56%, SW commercial vehicle – 5.28%, SW auto parts – 3.07%, SW Auto Service – 6.95%, SW motorcycle and others + 0.02%. From the perspective of valuation level, the overall PE of Shenwan auto sector was reduced to 31.46 times, 49.7% of the past five years, and the PE of auto parts sub sector was reduced to 30.03 times, 31.1% of the past five years.
Recent situation of the industry: from April 18 to 23, 130000 passenger cars were wholesale, down 61% year-on-year, 4% month on month, and 56% lower than the same period last month; The retail sales of passenger cars was 177000, a year-on-year decrease of 46%, an increase of 11% over last week and a decrease of 20% over the same period last month. Steel, aluminum, copper and other raw materials and freight prices are still high.
The marginal of the supply side is improved, and it is suggested to allocate additional sectors. Among the key epidemic affected areas, Jilin and Guangdong have a good overall situation. The trend of prevention and control in Shanghai has gradually improved, the resumption rate of white list enterprises has increased to 80%, and the logistics efficiency has continued to improve. From the insurance data, the weekly data has bottomed out and picked up. In 2022q1, affected by the lack of core, the epidemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the rising cost, the automobile production and sales data are general, and the enterprise operation is under pressure. The public offering position has decreased to 2.47%, with a month on month decrease of nearly 30%, and the market value of some individual shares has halved. Cost side: after a round of sharp rise in Q1, the aluminum price has dropped nearly 20% from the high point since mid and late March, which can alleviate the pressure on the cost side of some enterprises. The marginal improvement of the supply side begins, and it is suggested to allocate additional sectors.
Investment suggestion: Although the market is affected in the short term, electrification and intellectualization are still the general trend of the industry. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to three main lines: electrification & lightweight: the boom of new energy demand is determined and the penetration rate continues to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) , etc; Intellectualization: intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving are accelerated, and the intelligent configuration of new cars is continuously improved. It is suggested to pay attention to: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc; Improvement of core shortage: traditional automobile enterprises are greatly impacted by core shortage. With the improvement of supply, enterprise operation is expected to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to: Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, etc. The current market sentiment and positions are at the bottom. The worst time of the industry has passed, the marginal improvement has gradually begun, and the time point of adding sectors has come. Pay attention to the bottom configuration opportunities of high-quality white horse and high prosperity target of subdivision track. It is suggested to pay attention to: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) .
Risk tip: the industry’s terminal sales are less than expected, the manufacturer’s R & D or new car release progress is less than expected, the upstream raw material supply is insufficient or the price rise leads to the decline of industry profits, etc.
