Industrial metals: internationally, this week (all refer to April 25-april 29, the same below), the recovery of the U.S. labor market continued to be strong, and the expectation of steady economic development was good. In addition, the U.S. dollar index refreshed the high point since December 2002, and the expectation of raising interest rates continued to strengthen the U.S. dollar, which generally put pressure on industrial metals. In China, the central government’s statement will comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction, rise to a higher strategic level, jointly promote new and old infrastructure projects, boost the demand for industrial metals through infrastructure, and actively promote the recovery of freight logistics and the resumption of work and production of enterprises by the transportation department and the Ministry of Commerce, which may stimulate industrial metal consumption and further improve the supply and demand situation of industrial metals. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) , etc.
Copper: after the preparation before the festival, the delivery is light, waiting for the return of shopping after the festival
The global copper price fluctuated downward this week. LME copper closed at US $9714 / ton, down about 3.53% during the week; Shanghai copper closed at 73600 yuan / ton, down about 1.88% during the week. Internationally, the sharp rise of the US dollar index has suppressed the copper price, and the shutdown of copper mines in Peru has caused some disturbance to the copper supply side. In terms of China’s fundamentals, further resumption of work and production on the supply side led to a certain recovery in electrolytic copper production in April, but the circulation is still tight. On the demand side, the superposition of high copper prices and fewer terminal orders make it difficult to boost downstream consumption. However, the national macro stable growth policy was further promoted, and the infrastructure investment was quite effective in the first quarter. In the second quarter, it may continue to promote the downstream consumption of copper and boost demand.
Aluminum: the supply of electrolytic aluminum has increased year-on-year, and Shanghai aluminum is under pressure
Aluminum prices fell overall this week. LME aluminum closed at US $3013 / ton, down about 7.14% during the week; Shanghai aluminum closed at 20890 yuan / ton, down 4.70% during the week. In terms of China’s fundamentals, on the supply side, the output of electrolytic aluminum may increase by 1.8% year-on-year in April to around 3.31 million tons, with a significant growth rate. On the demand side, the downstream start-up was weak, and the order fell significantly. Near the May Day holiday, there are many underground trips to replenish the warehouse, and the arrival of upstream electrolytic aluminum is less, so China’s aluminum social inventory will be greatly reduced within the week. In terms of cost and profit, the cost side of electrolytic aluminum raw materials mainly operates stably, the coal price returns to the rational range, and the cost of self owned power aluminum enterprises is expected to be reduced.
Tin: export orders decreased, demand was weak, and tin prices fluctuated weakly
LME tin closed at US $40600 / ton, down about 3.85% from last week. Shanghai tin closed at 330080 yuan / ton, down about 1.85% from last week, and the overall tin price continued to fall. In terms of China’s fundamentals, the supply side and Myanmar are still disturbed by the epidemic, but there is still no substantial impact on China’s raw material side. China’s smelters have stable production and overall supply. Demand side solder enterprises still maintained a high opening rate in April, but with the industry’s off-season approaching and overseas export orders decreasing, it is expected that the industry’s start-up will gradually decline. China’s epidemic continues, and its overall exports are weakening. The actual demand for tin may depend on the expected increase in photovoltaic installation and new energy vehicles.
Zinc: overseas supply continues to be tight, and zinc prices remain high and volatile
LME zinc closed at US $4046 / ton, down 7.90% from last week. Shanghai zinc closed at 27950 yuan / ton, down 1.74% from last week, and the overall zinc price fluctuated downward. In terms of Lun zinc, LME destocking reached 46575 tons, and the inventory reached the low level of 95350 tons. Under the background of smelting production reduction, the shortage situation in the overseas market remained unchanged, supporting the bottom of zinc price. In terms of China’s fundamentals, China’s zinc ore is still in short supply on the supply side. After the opening of the early import ore window, a small number of smelters have made long-term procurement and are expected to arrive in China in mid and late June. Zinc ore remains in short supply, which will also continue to limit the output released by the smelter, and the short-term shortage at the overall supply side will not change. On the demand side, in the short term, affected by the epidemic, the demand is still weak, but China’s consumption promotion policy is further strengthened, the expectation of steady growth remains optimistic, the demand boost can be expected in the future, and the high-level shock operation is expected in the short term.
Energy metals: the overall supply and demand of the energy metal market remained weak this week, and the price continued to decline slightly. With the continuous promotion of the government’s policy of resumption of work and production, all vehicle enterprises and supply chain links are gradually recovering, downstream production orders are expected to improve and prices are expected to stabilize. In the long run, with the release of production capacity at the upstream raw material supply end, the release of new models at the policy end and auto enterprises, the penetration of new energy vehicles in the global market will usher in a new round of acceleration, and the sector is expected to maintain a high boom. It is suggested to be followed by the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Tengyuan cobalt industry, Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , etc.
Lithium: the auction of lithium ore reached a new high, and the profits of the industrial chain accelerated the transfer to the mine end
The price of battery grade lithium carbonate this week was 461500 yuan / ton, down 5500 yuan / ton from last week, down 1.2% month on month; The price of lithium hydroxide was 469000 yuan / ton, down 2500 yuan / ton from last week, down 0.5% month on month. The price of spodumene closed at 3805 yuan / ton, and the price continued to rise, up 10.1% from last week. According to SMM, the fourth auction price of PLS lithium concentrate continued to reach a new high. According to the announcement of PLS, the fourth auction of PLS lithium concentrate was completed today. The final transaction price was US $5650 / ton (FOB, 5.5% lithium oxide grade). The auction quantity was 5000 tons, which was shipped in June 2022. The auction price corresponds to the tax cost of a single ton of lithium salt of about 404000 yuan / ton. In terms of market performance, the market share of lithium carbonate is less this week, and most of the upstream mainstream manufacturers have no quotation. On the supply side, the output of lithium carbonate in April is expected to be basically stable compared with the previous month. It is expected that with the resumption of production and work of downstream new energy vehicles and other industries, the basic orientation is good, and the lithium price is expected to stabilize.
Cobalt: both supply and demand are weak, and the transaction is sporadic. Watch carefully in the downstream
This week, the external strength and internal weakness of cobalt prices continued, and the shock in China was weak. According to SMM, the price of electrolytic cobalt was 54 Shenzhen Wongtee International Enterprise Co.Ltd(000056) 0000 yuan / ton, down 1.6% from last week. The price of cobalt intermediate products was $34 / pound, flat with that of last week. On the supply side, disturbed by the flood in Durban port, South Africa, the business of Durban port was suspended urgently, the transportation of 70% cobalt resources in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was blocked, and the supply of cobalt raw materials was tightened. On the demand side, China’s traditional demand for metal cobalt is not high, consumer electronics is in the off-season, demand is poor, and the power battery market needs to be boosted by the resumption of terminal work. SMM expects that the subsequent adjustment range is limited. After the epidemic situation is alleviated, the demand will rise, and the cobalt price is expected to stabilize.
Nickel: the overall demand is weak, and the price fluctuates at a high level under the inventory of low-purity nickel
This week, LME nickel closed at US $31990 / ton and SHFE nickel closed at RMB 232230 / ton. LME nickel fell by 3.5% and SHFE nickel fell by 2.7% during the week. On the demand side, the rising cost of raw materials is difficult to be transmitted to the terminal, the manufacturers’ willingness to purchase is weak, and the overall demand is weak. On the supply side, the internal and external price difference has not been repaired, the current import is still in a state of loss, and the operating rate of Chinese electrolytic nickel manufacturers is low, resulting in tight supply in the Chinese market. The weather conditions in the Philippines are still unstable, and it is difficult for nickel mine air transportation to rise significantly in the short term. On the whole, the hard shortage of pure nickel supply has led to the rise of nickel price in Shanghai, the repair of internal and external price difference, the opening of import and export may improve the supply shortage, and the short-term nickel price is expected to remain high and volatile.
Precious metals: the Federal Reserve continued to release the signal of shrinking the table and raising interest rates, and precious metals fell under pressure
COMEX gold futures closed at $1896.9 per ounce this week, down 1.84% from last week. COMEX silver futures closed at $22.79 an ounce, down 5.81% from last week. The US dollar index continued to rise this week, ending at 103.22 in New York on Friday, up 2.07% from last week, and precious metal prices were under pressure. According to the data of the U.S. Department of labor, as of April 23, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week was 180000, in line with the expected 180000, at an all-time low, supporting the Fed’s tightening expectations. The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in May is approaching, superimposing its continuous release of the signal of shrinking the table and raising interest rates, leading to the decline of precious metal prices this week. However, considering that there are still concerns about the geographical situation and high inflation, precious metal prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term.
Rare earth: the supply and demand of rare earth is weak, and the price is expected to rise after the festival
Rare earth prices fell after rising this week. This week, the mainstream quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 845 Anhui Huamao Textile Company Limited(000850) 00 yuan / ton, an increase of 10 Yihua Healthcare Co.Ltd(000150) 00 yuan / ton compared with last week.; The quotation of terbium oxide and metal terbium were 14.3-14.5 million yuan / ton and 18-18.2 million yuan / ton respectively, up 300000 yuan / ton and 400000 yuan / ton respectively compared with last week. On the supply side, the overall production of light rare earth separation enterprises is stable; Ionic production enterprises are short of raw materials, production starts tend to decrease, and output decreases; Moreover, the output of waste materials is reduced, which leads to the shortage of overall supply. Affected by the epidemic, both supply and demand decreased, and rare earth prices fluctuated. Upstream manufacturers are optimistic about the post holiday market and have strong price support sentiment. It is expected that rare earth prices are expected to remain high with the recovery of downstream demand. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) etc.
Risk tips:
Metal prices fluctuated sharply, the demand for new energy fell sharply, and the macroeconomic performance was lower than expected
